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As wildfires rage in California, fire concerns grow in New England amid changing climate

BURLINGTON, Vt. — Many New Englanders marveled at the pink smoky skies – thick with ominous haze – that blanketed the region this summer.

The smoke made for rose-colored, and on some days, blazing red sunsets. People in Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Rhode Island stepped out of their homes and stopped on street corners to snap pictures.

Why the sky looked that way was out of sight and out of mind for most – the raging California wildfires that have destroyed communities and wilderness across 1.7 million acres, as well as fires in British Columbia. But a rude awakening could be approaching for those in the Northeast who believe wildfires are only a danger in the West.

Anecdotally, concerns are growing that New England may see more wildfires as a result of the warming climate and droughts. While the region is historically wet – and many New Englanders saw the rainiest July on record this summer – climate change is causing rain to drop heavier within shorter periods of time, potentially leaving longer dry spells amid rising temperatures. Classic New England winters are also on the decline due to climate change, with parts of the region seeing far less snow.

In 2020, Assistant Millbury Fire Chief Brian Gasco runs to save a hose from moving flames during a brush fire in Sutton, Massachusetts.
In 2020, Assistant Millbury Fire Chief Brian Gasco runs to save a hose from moving flames during a brush fire in Sutton, Massachusetts.

In 2020, Maine saw a record-breaking year for wildfires. This May, a brush fire in western Massachusetts became the largest wildland fire the state has seen in more than two decades.

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"It's real," said Jeff Currier, regional forest ranger for the Maine Forest Service. "We're at this crossroads with weather, the volunteer firefighter shortage and more people in the state."

Currier called 2020's wildfire numbers in Maine "off the rails," due in large part to an increase in pandemic-prompted back country tourism and campfires gone wrong.

But Erin Lane, a fire ecologist working with the USDA Northeast Climate Hub and North Atlantic Fire Science Exchange, wants to see more data before people start ringing the alarm.

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A 2012 brush fire in Worcester, Massachusetts.
A 2012 brush fire in Worcester, Massachusetts.

"The thing to watch is the data on drought, or those periods in between precipitation," said Lane. "We need to see where the trends are going, (in regards) to the climate change link to drought."

Much of the country's eyes have been on California this summer as more than 6,800 wildfires are estimated to have destroyed 1.7 million acres and 2,000-plus buildings so far. Canada has been simultaneously battling wildfires.

The National Wildfire Preparedness Level has been at PL5 – indicating the highest level of wildland fire activity – since July 14, only the third time in the last 20 years the country has reached that level by mid-July.

According to the First Street Foundation, a nonprofit climate research group, costs associated with wildfires have accelerated faster than any other climate hazard since 1990 – growing from $1 billion per year in the '90s to $16.6 billion in 2020.

Wildfire concerns in New England are not as significant as out West, said Lane, "and will probably never be" because of the region's wet climate.

But for someone like Dan Dillner, a protection forester and fire response coordinator for the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources, he's still worried watching how conditions have changed on the ground over the last several years.

"We are concerned about what the future's gonna bring," said Dillner. "I don't think folks in the Northeast are quite in that mindset yet. It doesn't matter what the fuels are, what the soils are. If it doesn't rain for a long enough period of time, it's going to be dry enough for a fire."

A brush fire burned several acres behind South High Community School in Worcester, Massachusetts in 2012.
A brush fire burned several acres behind South High Community School in Worcester, Massachusetts in 2012.

Will weather conditions, climate change cause more fires?

Made obvious this summer, New England is seeing an increase in precipitation annually, but that doesn't mean consistent rainfall, said Sean Birkel, the Maine state climatologist and research assistant professor at the University of Maine.

Precipitation is starting to drop all at once, within consolidated periods of times, he said, rather than regular rain and snowfall over the course of the year.

Meanwhile, temperatures are rising. The average annual temperature in Maine, for example, has increased 3.2 degrees Fahrenheit in the last 124 years, and the Northeast as a whole is projected to warm 5.4 degrees when the rest of the world reaches 3.6 degrees, according to Maine's Climate Future report from 2020.

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A May forest fire in Island Falls, Maine.
A May forest fire in Island Falls, Maine.

What this combination could mean for drought conditions isn't quite clear yet.

"There is not yet a strong trend in terms of an indicator whether or not the region will experience more or less drought," said Birkel. "However, with the warming climate, when dry conditions develop, they can be exacerbated by warmer temperatures. Another contributing factor is the more mild winters in particular."

Birkel noted last winter was one of the warmest on record, following extreme drought conditions in 2020, when the U.S. Geological Survey recorded record-low streamflow and groundwater levels throughout the region. Because of the subsequent mild winter, groundwater wasn't able to recharge, which is essential for keeping wildfires at bay.

A Northeast Regional Climate Center map of precipitation from June to August 2020 resulting in extreme drought conditions.
A Northeast Regional Climate Center map of precipitation from June to August 2020 resulting in extreme drought conditions.

"That illustrates how in the future, in a warming climate, the conditions in the winter season could contribute to dryness or drought that develops later in the year," Birkel said.

In a 2019 doctoral dissertation at the University of Massachusetts Amherst examining wildfire risk in the Northeast, author Daniel Miller wrote, "Interestingly, these increases in regional fire risk are present regardless of increases in precipitation, indicating that future fire risk in the (Northeastern United States) is driven largely by changes in temperature as opposed to precipitation."

The Northeast certainly appears to be seeing more drought, said Lane, "but attribution to climate change is less certain."

"There's trends that are emerging, and I think those trends are not entirely clear yet," she said.

Caren Caljouw, prescribed fire program manager for the Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife, said the significant drought year of 2020 saw about 1,300 wildfires in Massachusetts. She coordinates prescribed fires – or "planned" fires that manage landscapes and restore natural woodlands – across 200,000 state-owned acres in Massachusetts. On these acres, there were five wildfires in 2020, she said, when most years see just one.

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Massachusetts Chief Fire Warden David Celino said 2021 was on track to be another drought year until June came around – indicating how quickly wildfire conditions can change.

"Up until that point, we still had at least 796 wildfires that burned 1,528 acres," he said. "It shows how fire currents can change rapidly with the changing weather patterns. And even in 2021 through that period, we had over 300 residential homes threatened by wildfires. When you think about it, that was in a fairly short period of time."

Wildfire concerns are complex in Maine

As the most heavily forested state in the country, Maine saw a record-breaking year for wildfires in 2020 – upwards of 900, when a typical year has around 500. More than 90% of these fires are caused by people, says the Maine Forest Service.

Currier said the high number in 2020 is "of grave concern," and the most the state has seen since 1985.

The Pine Tree State has a long history with forest fires, including a brush with one of the top three recorded in North American history.

A forest fire occurring in the Bald Mountain Township in Maine.
A forest fire occurring in the Bald Mountain Township in Maine.

In 1825, the Miramichi fire burned 5 million acres in New Brunswick, Canada, and into Maine, leaving 160 people dead and 15,000 homeless.

More than a century later, 1947 was "the year Maine burned," when the state experienced more than 90 consecutive days of record-breaking warm temperatures and drought, resulting in its largest forest fire disaster in modern history. Fires throughout southern Maine consumed more than 200,000 acres, damaged or destroyed 13 communities, burned 1,000 homes, and left 16 people dead. For 14 days that October, firefighters tried to fight 200 fires across the state.

The 1947 fires decimated Mount Desert Island, which is home to Acadia National Park.

"Maine's public is very aware of wildfires due to the history we have in the state, but also due to Maine being the most forested state in the nation," said Currier, who manages one of three forest protection regions. "Maine is 'vacationland' and people come here for our natural resources. Our economy is so very reliant on the forest products industry and tourism, both of which could be negatively impacted by the wildfire threat."

Extreme fire pictured in Arundel, Maine during the state's 1947 fires.
Extreme fire pictured in Arundel, Maine during the state's 1947 fires.

While the state has seen an increase in wildfires over recent years, the numbers are nothing compared to the damage that used to be done. In 1903, Maine saw more than 260,000 acres burned, compared to 1,043 in 2020, according to the state's forest fire record. That's because fire suppression tactics have evolved and improved over time, with technology now considered critical in fighting fires.

Maine's climate is "no doubt" changing, said Currier, going from periods of "extreme dryness" to a "deluge" of precipitation, but his wildfire concerns go well beyond climate.

The Maine Forest Service worries about the decline in volunteer fire departments, which have historically been key partners in fighting forest fires. In Maine particularly, much of the northern part of the state is unorganized townships that rely on state government rather than local entities.

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Jeff Currier is a regional forest ranger for the Maine Forest Service. He sees several conflating factors – like climate change and degradation of volunteer fire departments – as concerns for Maine's wildfire risk.
Jeff Currier is a regional forest ranger for the Maine Forest Service. He sees several conflating factors – like climate change and degradation of volunteer fire departments – as concerns for Maine's wildfire risk.

There's also been a changeover in the companies that own much of Maine's timberland, resulting in road systems that have become less accessible for Currier and his teams – something they have to offset using aircrafts and technology.

Also, more people are coming to Maine, and they're likely unfamiliar with the state's fire prevention laws. Illegal campfires and brushfires, as well as fireworks, cause a huge percentage of the state's fires. Currier attributed a portion of last year's uptick to the increase in people visiting Maine's wilderness during COVID-19.

The intersection of these factors with climate change presents a complex burden, said Currier.

"I would not anticipate we would ever see a 1947 again, but I do know that it wouldn't take too many fires simultaneously to put us in a position where our resources would be stretched thin," he said.

Vermont sees wildfire uptick over last two years

In Vermont, which is about 60% rural, wildfire numbers haven't consistently increased over the last decade, but the last two years have seen a climbing trajectory.

Dillner, a fire warden who oversees multiple counties, said the state's 10-year average of reported fires annually is 79. In 2020, 96 fires were reported, while 2021 has seen 91 so far.

"A lot of our state is hardwoods with heavier soils that hold the moisture more, but we certainly do have areas where traditionally there has been a fair amount of fire activity some years," said Dillner.

The northeastern part of Vermont will become a focus in terms of wildfire risk as the climate changes, he said, because the area has more softwood conifers.

This May in the town of Killington, a wildfire burned for several days on private land, ultimately touching 32 acres and flaring up again after initially being contained. It was caused by a debris burn without a permit that got out of control, Dillner said, and published reports have said the landowners were new to the area.

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Smoke from a ground fire in Vermont shown in an undated picture.
Smoke from a ground fire in Vermont shown in an undated picture.

"That had some pretty active fire, burning up into trees," he said. "It seemed a lot more like a western type of a fire."

That same month, Vermont firefighters assisted with a massive brush fire on the border in western Massachusetts that scorched nearly 1,000 acres starting in Williamstown.

"People don't think about fire here as much as they do out west," said Dillner. "If we do get into more drought times, it's certainly putting houses and structures at risk. And it's putting firefighters at risk."

Both Dillner and Massachusetts's Celino noted the 2016 Gatlinburg wildfires in Tennessee that resulted in 14 fatalities as being of major concern to the Northeast.

"Who would have ever thought we'd end up with that kind of catastrophic incident in northern hardwoods?" said Celino. "It burned the same kind of fuel types we have here."

Dillner called Gatlinburg a "wakeup call."

More than 90% of wildfires in New England are human-caused

Residents and visitors across New England have a responsibility to prevent wildfires, experts say, because they're the ones causing them the majority of the time. That means obtaining necessary burn permits and avoiding fire activity altogether when conditions are risky, among other things.

"All you need is the right ingredients that sort of align together," said Celino. "That's when fire managers get very, very nervous. On those days we have high fire danger and nice warm temps, those are great recreation days, and so we count on the public to pay attention to the messaging we put out. The public is the partner in it, of course."

Most of New England requires people to obtain burn permits from their local agencies, which allow brush burning only. In Massachusetts, for example, residents can burn brush between Jan. 15 and May 15, depending on weather conditions determined by state fire wardens.

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Dover, NH firefighters were able to quickly extinguish a two-alarm brush fire on April 26, 2021.
Dover, NH firefighters were able to quickly extinguish a two-alarm brush fire on April 26, 2021.

But in some communities open burning is prohibited at all times due to air quality concerns.

For homeowners located in the "wildland urban interface" – defined as an area where houses and wildland vegetation meet or intermingle – they can see more pronounced wildfire problems, and should be paying attention.

"When houses are built close to forests or other types of natural vegetation, they pose two problems related to wildfires," says a 2018 study on the rapid growth of the U.S. wildland-urban interface. "First, there will be more wildfires due to human ignitions. Second, wildfires that occur will pose a greater risk to lives and homes, they will be hard to fight, and letting natural fires burn becomes impossible."

Maine's Currier said residents can actively work to "fire-proof" their homes. Structures should have at least 30 feet of defensible space around them, increasing the likelihood that firefighters can save the home in the case of a fire. People should trim surrounding brush, clean gutters of leaves and needles, and keep branches from hanging over homes, he said.

"We always talk about trees, but my No. 1 priority is protecting homes from wildfires," said Currier.

Follow Hadley Barndollar on Twitter: @hbarndollar.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY NETWORK: New England wildfire concerns growing due to climate change, weather