Wild-card playoff preview: What the Bills must do to beat the Patriots

Familiar foes square off Saturday night in Buffalo, with the Bills hosting the New England Patriots to determine who will advance in the AFC playoffs. This game is the third meeting between the two teams, who split their regular-season contests.

Interestingly enough, this is the 71st time since the AFL-NFL merger that teams have met three times during a single season. On 48 of those prior occasions, the teams had split their regular season series, as the Patriots and Bills have done this year.

You would be right in saying that the Bills have the momentum coming into this game, having won the most recent meeting and having finished the regular season with a win. New England, on the other hand, lost in Week 18 to the Miami Dolphins and now face the prospect of starting their playoffs on the road with a rookie quarterback.

As for the Bills, perhaps their stretch run has not been pretty, but Buffalo finished with four straight wins to close out back-to-back division titles. Now, the playoffs beckon. What must the Bills do to beat the Patriots?

Slow down the running game

(Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Getty Images)

By now everyone probably knows what the New England Patriots want to do on offense. They want to run the football. In the third meeting between these teams, will we see Josh McDaniels call 46 running plays and just three passes, like he did back in Week 13? Perhaps not, but whatever the run/pass ratio is for New England, odds are the run game will be a heavy focus.

For the Bills, they need to find a way to slow down the Patriots ground game.

There is a case to be made that Buffalo did a pretty good job of that, even in the Week 13 loss. If you take away Damien Harris’ 64-yard touchdown run, New England’s only touchdown that night, then the Bills held New England to just 3.3 yards per attempt. On a yards per attempt basis, the Patriots actually ran the ball better in the Week 16 meeting, when they had 27 carries for 149 and three Harris touchdowns, averaging 5.5 yards per attempt.

To view this through another lens, let us look at the Patriots offense in those two games through Expected Points Added. Here is that chart from Week 13:

And now, for Week 16:

At least, in terms of EPA per rushing attempt, the Patriots ran the ball better in the second meeting.

Yet the Bills won.

A key to Buffalo’s success slowing down the New England running game can be found on the second level of their defense. In these two meetings, whenever Buffalo was able to stop a running play from getting going, the linebackers were at their most aggressive, flying downhill, blowing up blocks, and fitting against the run.

Take this play from their second meeting. Bear in mind this is a 1st and 10 play from early in the game:

Then on this play it is Phillips with the penetration to slow down a rushing attempt:

Buffalo does not need to stop every play for a loss. They just cannot let the Patriots establish the run and let McDaniels turn this game into a repeat of the Week 13 game script. Slow the run game and make Mac Jones beat you.

To that point…

Force the scholarship throws

(AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

Mac Jones has been the best of the rookie quarterbacks this season, despite a valiant effort down the stretch by Davis Mills to wrestle that title away from him. Jones has done some good things for the Patriots, and there are things that he does well for an NFL quarterback, let alone a rookie quarterback.

But there are some areas of his game that need growth and development. Particularly when he is forced to push the ball downfield into tighter coverage. On throws of more than 20 yards this season, Jones has an Adjusted Completion Percentage per Pro Football Focus charting data of 41.4%, which is 16th in the league. He has throws four touchdowns, and four interceptions, on those throws.

Where New England wants to live, particularly throwing the football, is over the middle. But the Bills did some things from a scheme and technique standpoint to take those routes away, and force Jones to either attempt throws into tight coverage or look to the outside.

On this play, Jones tries to hit a dig route to Jakobi Meyers, but the defenders undercut the breaks, forcing Jones to try and throw into tight coverage with little margin for error:

The Bills show two-deep safeties before the play, but at the snap Jordan Poyer drops down as they rotate into Cover 1 with Poyer coming down as a robber. But he is not passive. Instead he attacks Meyer’s route, and along with Taron Johnson the two defenders swallow the receiver, negating him as an option.

For Buffalo, if Jones throws for 350 yards and three touchdowns by hitting on deep shots downfield and making “scholarship throw” after scholarship throw — to borrow a term from Minnesota Vikings defensive backs coach Karl Scott — then you tip your hat and congratulate him on a job well done.

But if Jones throws for 350 yards and three touchdowns by hitting shallow crosser after shallow crosser, well, that’s a you problem.

Take those routes away, force Jones to beat you at other areas of the field, and see if he is up to the challenge.

Win the undercard matchup

(David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports)

Looking back at how the Bills won the Week 16 meeting between these two teams, you can see a pattern developing when Buffalo put the ball in the air:

Isaiah McKenzie.

With Cole Beasley sidelined that week due to a positive COVID test, McKenzie stepped into the lineup for the Bills and caught a team-high 11 passes for 125 yards and a touchdown, with the receiving yardage also leading Buffalo on that day.

When one thinks about how this game might play out, a matchup that many are excited to see is that of wide receiver Stefon Diggs against cornerback J.C. Jackson. Each is among the game’s best at their position, and they held a bitter contest in both of the games this season. Diggs did manage to catch a touchdown working against Jackson in the second meeting, but the cornerback is often running with Diggs stride-for-stride on other plays.

So while that might be more of a stalemate, when Allen looks to throw he might find more favorable matchups on the inside. Back in Week 16, McKenzie often found himself working against Myles Bryant, and made a few huge plays on crossing routes breaking against Bryant’s leverage and acceleration away from him.

This 18-yard gain is a prime example:

Right now the Patriots are a little thin in the secondary, as Jalen Mills and Shaun Wade are both on the COVID-19 reserve list, and Kyle Dugger has been out with a hand injury. Bryant, who was on the COVID-19 list, was just returned to the active roster. Jonathan Jones, who is often tasked with handling slot receivers in the New England defense, has been on injured reserve since October due to a shoulder injury.

So while Diggs versus Jackson is the kind of heavyweight matchup we like to see during an NFL game, the Bills might have an advantage, and a critical one at that, in the undercard.

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