Travel industry numbers keep rising ‘week over week’: The Points Guy CEO

Brian Kelly, Founder & CEO of The Points Guy, joins Yahoo Finance’s Kristin Myers and Alexis Christoforous to discuss the outlook of the travel industry amid the pandemic.

Video Transcript

KRISTIN MYERS: People are traveling again. According to the TSA screening figures, almost 1.3 million people flew just yesterday. And as you guys can see there from that chart, just a few days ago on March 28, we saw almost a pandemic high of nearly 1.6 million people being screened by the TSA. And even more people will be able to cram onto those planes when Delta adds that middle seat back on May 1. So let's talk more about travel with Brian Kelly, founder and CEO of The Points Guy. So Brian, we're seeing more and more people traveling. When do you think we'll get back to those pre-pandemic levels? Will it happen any time soon?

BRIAN KELLY: Well, you know, we're closing in about 60% of pre-pandemic levels, which is, frankly, shocking to me, considering almost all international travel to Europe and Asia is cut off. But we won't really get back to those full numbers until business travel rebounds and in talking to a lot of companies, you know, those old days of road warriors, it's going to take a while to come back to people are comfortable from that. And many are predicting they won't come back at all. Business travel will look completely different. So a lot of open question marks, but the numbers keep rising week over week.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: That is for sure, Brian. And I know leisure travel is really taking off. Look, there's a lot of pent-up demand, right? We've all been inside, not being able to go anywhere for the past year plus. So people are trying to get out and about. And I'm wondering about where people are flying right now. What are some of the hot spots? And I know prices are insane because of all the demand. Are there places where people can still get some good, you know, airline deals and also some good hotel deals?

BRIAN KELLY: Yeah, so I mean, Florida-- I was in Miami Beach last week. Absolutely packed-- you would never even know that there was a pandemic there. Definitely Puerto Rico as well, because you don't have to get tested to come back into the country since it's a US territory. But we're still seeing big numbers in Mexico and Caribbean. But we are hearing from travelers. People are not comfortable yet traveling far distances internationally, especially now with new lockdowns just announced in France and Italy.

You know, I thought Europe was going to be on the table for this summer. I still do think Greece. Maybe Italy will, but their slow vaccine rollout and these new variants are definitely going to keep most people from staying domestic. Hawaii, another huge increase. We're seeing every airline add flights to Hawaii. Even those nice international jets with lie flat seats are going to Hawaii more than ever. So-- and as far as deals, there still are deals to be had. But certain markets-- don't expect it to be empty planes and $30 airfares like we were seeing a year ago. But you can still get deals if you hunt for them.

KRISTIN MYERS: Yeah, Brian, I hate to admit it, but I'm one of those folks that purchased very recently a ticket to Hawaii. And I was absolutely stunned when I saw that I couldn't get $20 a day deals on those car rentals. They're more like $500 a day. You're talking about how some folks are still very hesitant to get on a plane and to go traveling, especially internationally. How will vaccine passports play into that? Do you think that will bring more comfort to the travelers? Do you think that we're going to start seeing either airlines or other countries start to require them?

BRIAN KELLY: Vaccine passports definitely will increase travel because you won't have the stress of having to take a test on arrival. And God forbid, it's positive, and your whole vacation's ruined. And you're in a hotel room in a foreign place for two weeks or more. So until the US actually mandates that or allows people who are fully vaccinated to come back in the US without having to take a COVID test, I don't anticipate international travel to be increasing.

Now the US has said that they're not going to mandate vaccine passports, but I am hopeful, especially since these vaccines are so effective, that they will allow people to travel into the US with the vac-- fully verified vaccine. But, you know, we've seen a handful of countries with vaccine passports. Iceland is one of them. We actually sent one of our Points Guys writers there last week. And they just are now pausing their vaccine passport program. So lots of kinks to still work out. That's why 2021 for international travel is going to be a wash. But I do think the big boom will be in 2022.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: I've got to get back to those deals because I am curious. Unlike Kristin, I have not booked a trip. I don't know if I'm quite comfortable flying just yet. But where can I look to find these deals?

BRIAN KELLY: Here's my number one tip. So, one of the positives of this pandemic has been that airlines now allow you to use your frequent flyer miles and cancel for any reason and get all of your miles and points back. Now that's different from the free change fees that airlines have on paid tickets, where you won't get your money back, but they'll let you get a voucher, which isn't that great.

So what I recommend is, look and use your frequent flyer miles. I know a lot of us have had them building up this past year. So if you're sitting on a bunch of miles, look to see where you want to go. There's amazing-- you know, plan for Greece in August. And guess what? If it doesn't end up happening, you get all your miles and points and dollars back, so. And I do believe it's good for your mental health to have something on the books. So use those miles and smile at a future vacation.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: You don't have to tell me twice to go to Greece. I'm already there in my mind, Brian.

BRIAN KELLY: Me, too. I'm actually booked to go in July, so fingers crossed.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: Oh, I'm jealous. Good for you.

KRISTIN MYERS: I know, you're showing us all up here, Brian. You know, you're talking about some of the changes that are going to be made going forward. Do you think that there's going to be some changes made in terms of destinations, places that folks used to travel to frequently and are now going to largely avoid? Perhaps they'll start heading to other destinations more regularly instead.

BRIAN KELLY: Yeah, I mean, one of those big destinations is Alaska. There's tons of new flights to Alaska this summer. Unfortunately, there are no Alaskan cruises due to the Canadian government has pretty much ruled that off for this summer. But Alaska is going to be a big hot spot. And still, we see this summer, RVs are booking up way in advance. So I do think this summer will model last summer, where people are going to national parks.

And there's so many beautiful places in the US, and staying close to home like Bermuda, Puerto Rico. But, you know, I don't really see mass tourists going real far international destinations until, you know, the pandemic's under control, and people have peace of mind that they're not going to get stranded abroad.

KRISTIN MYERS: All right, so what I'm hearing then, Alexis, is those flight deals to Greece might still exist because the demand is not yet there. So maybe you can book one of those flights soon. Brian Kelly, Points Guy founder and CEO, thanks so much for joining us today.