Summer box office: What to expect, according to a media analyst

Comscore Senior Media Analyst Paul Dergarabedian joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss ‘Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3’, the expectations for moviegoers, the state of the box office, and what to watch for ahead of the summer.

Video Transcript

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- The summer movie season is officially underway, with another Marvel debut kicking off the blockbuster period. "Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3" brought in $114 million in its opening, setting a strong tone for more debuts ahead. Here to discuss the state of the box office and what to watch is senior Comscore analyst, Paul Dergarabedian, along with Yahoo Finance's, Allie Canal, a big welcome to you both here. I'm a huge Marvel fan. So I'm already all in no matter what comes out. But I want to first get your take on what we're seeing with "Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3" and expectations for moviegoers.

PAUL DERGARABEDIAN: Well, the expectations are always high for Marvel movies. And "Guardians of the Galaxy" had a Sunday domestic estimate for the weekend of $114 million. Just breaking news now, the film has come in higher than that. It had a really strong Sunday response. Cause the critics and audiences really are enjoying the movie. It came in at $118.4 million. The international number went up.

So at the end of the day, for the weekend, or for this debut for Guardians, $289.3 million dollar global debut, not bad, not a bad way to kick off the all-important summer movie season. Marvel has traditionally kicked off the summer for the movie industry and for theaters. And that's happening again. This is gonna be a really strong summer. I think it's gonna rival the pre-pandemic levels for summer box office.

- So, Paul, I want to pick up on that because you mention the strong showing for Guardians. We also have the "Super Mario Bros. Movie" continuing to add that momentum. If you had to pick one-- maybe I'll give you two or three-- the top-performing movies this summer, what do you anticipate?

PAUL DERGARABEDIAN: Wow. well, there's a

- What's gonna blow our socks off?

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PAUL DERGARABEDIAN: There's a lot to choose from. I mean, if you look at "Elemental," a new Pixar movie, "Little Mermaid" on Memorial weekend, you look at July 21, that's my weekend. I'm gonna be at the theater at least a couple of times, with "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" both opening on that weekend. The lead into that weekend is "Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One."

I mean it's just keep coming. You know-- and "The Flash," I saw that film at CinemaCon a couple of weeks ago. That's an amazing film from DC. They really need that reset. And I think that's gonna do that for them. "Fast 10" or "Fast X," however you want to say it, that's another big movie on the way.

So I just look at this as a blockbuster summer, the likes of which we haven't seen in a few years. I mean, last year was a really strong summer. Obviously, "Top Gun: Maverick" really was a big movie for the industry, on so many levels. But this is gonna be a summer movie season that's gonna have 20, count them, 20 more wide-release films than we had last year. That's a lot of movies. So this is just, I think, a bevy of riches on the way at the multiplex.

It's hard for me to answer you, as to one or two films. There's gonna be-- oh, "Indiana Jones." How could I forget about "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny"? So so many big films to choose from.

- And you raise a good point. Because we do have so many more blockbusters this year-- because I was struggling to find a whole lot that are worth going into the actual movie theaters for. When you want the big production, you know, that's when you go into the movie theater. But then you add streaming and people trying to sort of punch some pennies here. How do you think that's going to play into the summer season?

PAUL DERGARABEDIAN: Well, I think it's interesting because I think people base their decision whether to see a movie, not on how much the ticket price is or how much it's gonna cost, really, at the end of the day. Cause relative to other outside of the home activities, going in the movie theater is actually a bargain. Look at how many families have been going to see Super Mario Brother-- "Super Mario Bros." film. That movie as over $500 million domestic, over a billion dollars worldwide. So Super Mario just showing that when families particularly want to get out of the house, going to the movie theater is a great option.

I think it's an emotional response. If you see that trailer for "Barbie," or "Oppenheimer," or "Mission Impossible," even though you have all those great options at home-- and I, of course, partake of those myself-- but, really, it's about that communal, immersive, outside of the home experience. There's really nothing quite like it. And I think "Barbie" is definitely a film to look out for, a lot of buzz going for that one.

And just so many films, this is great news for movie theaters because what you need to drive audiences to theaters is, guess what, movies. And we have so many more of them this year. Overall, for the year, in our-- according to our Comscore data, we're gonna have 30 more wide-release films for the year than we had last year, 30 more. We were down 41 films in '22 versus 2019. So it's all about the movies, getting them out there on a uniform basis. More movies, more often is my credo, or my watchword, or however you want to say it, my mission statement for the industry for 2023.

- Well, Paul, that being said, though, we are still about 20% below pre-pandemic level. So two questions for you on that front. One, how do we get there, if ever? Is this just a new standard?

PAUL DERGARABEDIAN: Mm-hmm.

- And two, there's been a lot of talk of consolidation of movie theaters, amid this slowdown and a move to a more, you know, premium experience. So what are your thoughts on that as well?

PAUL DERGARABEDIAN: Well, I think if-- this has become a leaner meaner business. And that means that this year, let's say we get to over 9 billion domestically. Typically, you'll get to $11 billion. $11.4 billion was the box office for domestic for the full year of 2019, 11.9 billion in 2018. This year, we're gonna get to over 9 billion. Could we get to 10 billion? That remains to be seen.

But if you have fewer screens chasing that audience and you're filling theaters in a-- especially, like you said, with the premium large formats and those higher-cost tickets, which, I think, are the go-to option for moviegoers, they're looking for that premium experience. I think this holds the industry in good stead. And whether or not we get back to 11 billion domestically or over 40 billion globally for movie theaters, I don't know that that's really the point.

It's about how lean and mean-- I always-- I overuse that, but it's true. Is the business-- how efficient is it, on a per theater basis, and filling seats, and those premium, large format, or just premium experiences, what audiences are looking for? I think this is a great outcome for the movie industry, which had been beleaguered by the pandemic for 2, 2 and 1/2 years, almost 3 years. And now it's back.

At CinemaCon a couple of weeks ago, which is the big movie industry confab with all the theater owners, and the studios, and others, everyone was super optimistic. I think it was-- people were saying that, you know, optimism has given way to confidence. And I think that's a great way to state where the industry, movie theater industry, stands right now.

- And, Paul-- and, Paul, real quick. Cause you mentioned COVID, which was obviously a huge risk. Another risk, though, is the writer's strike. That's a big topic in Hollywood right now.

PAUL DERGARABEDIAN: Yeah.

- Likely. won't affect 2023. But real quickly, what's the chatter about, potentially, 2024?

PAUL DERGARABEDIAN: Yeah. I mean, that's the long-term-- with movies, obviously, you have-- those have a long tail, long production schedules. All the movies that are on the slate for this year have presumably been written. But beyond that, that's the big question mark. And obviously, eventually, production catches up with or doesn't catch up with the release calendar. And that could be an issue. So we hope, for everyone involved, that that gets resolved very quickly.

But for now, we're looking at a really strong summer, again, one that could rival pre-pandemic levels for the summer box office. And that's really great news for movie theaters and for audiences who love going to the movie theater. There's really nothing like it. So I'll be there first in line for all these movies this year cause I'm really into it. I love the movie theater. And this is a great outcome for the industry to have this many films. And if you look at the release calendar for the summer, it's chock full of big movies that are on the way.

- Indeed. my 9 year old is still raving about the "Super Mario Bros. Movie."

PAUL DERGARABEDIAN: Ah, there you go.

- I didn't even think she'd like it. But she loves it. Big thank you there.

PAUL DERGARABEDIAN: That's great.

- Thank you for joining us, Paul Dergarabedian--

PAUL DERGARABEDIAN: Thank you.

- --Comscore Senior Media Analyst, alongside Yahoo Finance's very own Alexandra Canal. Thanks so much.