New Quinnipiac University poll shows Biden leading Trump by 11 points

Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman joined Jen Rogers, Myles Udland, and Andy Serwer to discuss the latest Quinnipiac University poll showing Biden leading Trump by 11 points.

Video Transcript

MYLES UDLAND: Let's turn now to the world of politics and bring in Rick Newman on some recent polling we've gotten here, Rick, both on the president's approval rating, on what people think about the virus right now, and I guess just kind of where this puts everything, considering we're now, you know, just a little over five months away from the actual presidential election, which has-- feels like we've been waiting for that for a lifetime, but it is, in fact, almost here.

RICK NEWMAN: Trump seems to be in trouble. I mean, the polls are consistently showing that Joe Biden is gaining a lead-- you know, a point or two per week. So the poll that just came out this afternoon, it's the Quinnipiac Poll put out by Quinnipiac University-- it's a national poll-- this show-- this poll shows Trump beating-- excuse me, Biden beating Trump by 50% to 39%. So an 11-point gap. Their last poll in April was a nine-point gap.

Approval of Trump's handling of the coronavirus crisis has fallen from 46% to 41%. So that's a big reason why Biden is gaining a little bit. And when asked who they think would do a better job handling the coronavirus crisis, 55% say Biden and only 39% say Trump. So voters seem to perceive that Biden is a better guy for the moment than Trump is.

Now, with any kind of poll like this, you need to add all the caveats. It's still more than five months till the election. The poll could be wrong. It's a national poll, not necessarily a poll of how voters feel in the six or seven swing states that will decide the outcome in November. But if you're Trump, you've got to be worried.

ANDY SERWER: But Rick, I just want to-- you kind of just one of those little caveats that I think is really important, polls could be wrong. The polls could be wrong. Well, the polls were completely wrong last time. Do we have any indication that the polls are better this time, or do we understand why they were wrong last time until the pollsters fixed it?

MYLES UDLAND: And if I could add to Andy's question, as well, Rick, I look at this poll, and it basically seems like Biden does-- like, Biden has been 50% for months. Nothing has changed him at all. So what is the poll, I guess, measuring? It seems like it's only a Trump poll.

RICK NEWMAN: So first of all, I'm not the pollster. I'm just the messenger. Don't attack me. You know, if one-- if anything has changed in polls, it's that the pollsters are completely aware of how they got it wrong in 2016. So they've built in-- you know, they've tried to build in new safeguards. I mean, you know, some methodological things such as make sure you're including cell phone surveys, which I think cell phones were underrepresented, so if you don't have a landline, maybe you're not getting a phone call or you're not included, things like that. And you know, they're all issuing these caveats.

I mean, it is worth pointing out that, you know, Hillary Clinton did win the popular vote, and a lot of the polls actually were pretty close on the popular vote. But what they obviously got wrong was the mix of states, which is why they were all wrong on the electoral vote. So I think this time around, people are pointing out the weaknesses of national polls, like the one I just mentioned. What happens nationally is not as determinative as what happens in six or eight swing states. So there probably is a little more polling of the swing states this time.

But nonetheless, you know, Biden has been-- I mean, we all know he's been in his basement, and he still has been ticking up by basically doing nothing. So a lot of the analysts I've been talking to say, well, Biden knows what his strategy is. When your opponent is self-destructing, step out of the way and let him do it.

ANDY SERWER: I like ticking up by doing nothing.

RICK NEWMAN: Yeah, it's kind of working. I don't think he can continue to do that. But I want to point out a couple other elements of this poll that kind of give you some idea why Trump is slipping. So 2/3 of people in this poll, 67% say Trump should wear a mask when he's out in public, like mostly everybody else, and only 27% say he should not wear a mask. So even a lot of Republicans feel Trump should wear a mask. So he just seems to be out of touch with what is happening in a lot of the states. We know that governors are-- many governors are getting better ratings than Trump.

And just the last thing-- Mike-- Myles flicked at this in the tease before we went to last break-- 47% of people say a second wave of the virus is likely, and another 40% say it's somewhat likely. So if you put that together, 87% of Americans think we're going to have some level of resurgence of this virus in the fall. So Americans are pretty cautious about the coronavirus.

MYLES UDLAND: And I think all else equal, Rick, I mean, that's positive for the-- you know, the advance of the virus, right? The virus is going to do what we allow it to do, and if everyone is cautious about there being a second wave, it makes it less likely that there will be a massive second wave, because that wave comes when people let their guard down. So I guess on that count, somewhat encouraging news, at least on the behavior of most of our fellow citizens.