Oil prices: What to glean from OPEC+ output cuts, US supply

Crude oil (CL=F, BZ=F) prices are on the trajectory to move higher — after two straight months of gains — as OPEC+ decided to extend its production cuts to mid-year 2024.

Truist Securities Managing Director Neal Dingmann joins Yahoo Finance to talk about what these cuts and the United States' own domestic supply mean for oil prices going forward.

"It does create a floor. I think [that] you take this, couple this with very, very limited domestic supply. I think that's what surprised folks last year when the US supply grew over a million barrels," Dingmann says. "This year I would be surprised if it grows over 300,000 to 400,000 barrels. So, I think when you couple those two with rising demand, which appears we're likely going to have, I would be surprised if we end the year anything less than $90s."

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.


Editor's note: This article was written by Luke Carberry Mogan.

Video Transcript

BRAD SMITH: Crude prices are moving higher after OPEC plus announced plans to extend production cuts until June. The group began cutting over 2 million barrels per day back in November to break down what this means for investors. Neal Dingmann who is the Truist Securities managing director here with us. So ultimately here, how could we continue to see this have a broader impact on energy prices or is it largely baked in at this point?

NEAL DINGMANN: I think-- good morning. Thanks for having me. I think number one it is largely baked in. I think we continue to count on not only the two million. That's really Saudi continuing to step up. And I think it was interesting that is interesting is Saudi continue to push out their one million cut that Russia is going to exchange. And actually right now their cut continuing-- actually contains a large amount of exports. It's actually going to be all production.

And so I think just to see the confidence, maybe extend out next time more than a couple of months. I think will give us a sense that this support is here to stay for some time.

SEANA SMITH: Neal, does this put a floor in for oil prices? And what would that be. And when we talk about maybe some of that upside that we could see upward pressure. As a result of this, how much higher could we see prices go?

NEAL DINGMANN: Yes. I think number one, it does create a flaw. I think you take this-- couple this with very, very limited domestic supply. I think that's what surprised folks last year when the US supply grew over a million barrels this year. I'd be surprised if it grows over 300,000 or 400,000 barrels. So I think when you couple those two with rising demand which it appears. We're likely going to have-- I would be surprised if we end the year anything less than 90s seconds.

SEANA SMITH: Neal, the fact that we did see this extension though of the cuts is that maybe a sign that demand isn't going to be where we initially thought it would be here through the second quarter.

NEAL DINGMANN: It definitely-- the great point for the first half of this year I think you're absolutely right. I think we were hoping we would come out a little bit hotter on the demand side, I mean both for the macro economy and just the energy segment in general. But you're right, the ramp is starting I can feel it even as I talk to my investors, the sentiment is improving. But right now I can still tell you coming into this weekend the energy group was the most shorted group of the sectors out there.

So sentiment is improving it's just taking longer to your point than we expected.

BRAD SMITH: Are we expecting this too, especially with the wave of consolidation that we've seen in the oil and gas sector over the last year. Would you say that there's more to be expected at this juncture or is much of the dealmaking behind us and now it's focusing on driving and pulling out some of these synergies that companies have really been focused on with those consolidation efforts?

NEAL DINGMANN: I think it'll be active, not as active we've seen some of the biggest deals in my time. I've done this a long time. But the continued need for inventory for a lot of companies I could list seven or eight companies that I think are going to have to add inventory this year. So I think there's going to be some activity just not to the size and not as many as we've seen. But again, certainly $80 plus price is almost where we are. Now you think about it, my best companies have a break even all in around $40. They're making a ton of money here at anything close to $80.