Market Check: Futures waver as concerns over Russia-Ukraine conflict

Yahoo Finance's Julie Hyman and Brian Sozzi discuss how the market is reacting to growing concerns over the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Video Transcript

JULIE HYMAN: First, we do want to start with what's going on with the Russia Ukraine situation, really heating up over the weekend with a lot of telephone diplomacy, as well as the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz heading to Kyiv to try to moderate the situation. He is due to go to Moscow tomorrow. And then this morning, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov proposing that Putin continue talks with the West. It seems, according to reporting, that Putin is open to those continued talks.

So if you take a look inside the Yahoo Finance Interactive here this morning, I just want to walk you through some of the market gyrations on all of this. First, S&P 500 futures, we had seen some negative trading overnight into this morning on concerns over the implications of all of this, and then a recovery here when we got those Lavrov headlines, though still in the red at this moment.

And taking a look at some of the other reactions that we've been watching for in markets here this morning, here's an index of Russian stocks. It is still down on an intraday basis, although you can see it's well up off the lows of the session as well. We're watching a host of different asset classes on all of this. Here's the dollar-ruble, dollar still trading lower now, actually trading lower versus the ruble, which is interesting. It was trading lower before, so that's not necessarily a change here.

Here's another index of Russian stocks. And this here is down 8% on an intraday basis. There's also a way to track it here in the US, the RSX. This is the VanEck Vectors Russia ETF, which has been sort of a proxy here in the US for everything that has been going on. If you look at it on a year-to-date basis, it is off by 13% on these increased tensions.

And then we're seeing evidence of all of this across Europe as well. Here's the Deutsche Boerse, the DAX. It is down by 5% for the year. It's down 2% in today's session. So even with those Lavrov headlines there, it's more of a blip on the screen.

And then, of course, there is the commodity. And I'll do this-- run through these quickly here. There are a lot of implications and concerns about what all of this could mean for supply from Russia. Russia actually produces one out of every ten barrels of oil used around the world, consumed around the world. So any concerns about disruption to supply is really creating some turmoil in those markets.

Natural gas, ditto, natural gas about 3 and 1/2% higher on the day. Russia also a wheat producer. So that's another commodity that we're watching.

And finally, where are people going because of all of this? In part, we're seeing some of the metals rally. But also Russia palladium producers. So there just are a lot of different tendrils here, Brian Sozzi, when you're talking about this Russia situation.

BRIAN SOZZI: There is a lot. And Julie, the market might be taking a little bit of a wait-and-see approach this morning, especially after that big downdraft on Friday. But Wall Street strategists, they're not waiting this one out to react.

And I'm looking right at Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. Now, he's the most bearish strategist on Wall Street. He came out with a note this morning, Julie, calling-- just saying that the risk of a global recession could happen if a war ultimately unfolds. That increases the odds of what Wilson calls a polar vortex for the economy and earnings. Wilson never at loss for words in describing what could happen with stocks. He's calling for a potential polar vortex for stocks and the economy if there is, in fact, a war.

What does that essentially mean? Basically that economies globally, they slip into recession with a spike in energy prices, like you just mentioned. And all this comes against the backdrop, of course, Julie, where inflation is already high. So the market very much right now is in a bit of a pickle.

JULIE HYMAN: It seems so, doesn't it? And then there's inflation to throw into the mix also. So there's a lot to consider there.