An Iranian attack on Israel is unlikely to be direct: Expert

Israel is reportedly preparing for an imminent attack on government targets from Iran, with President Biden adding that he expects Iran to attack "sooner than later." American Enterprise Institute Distinguished Senior Fellow Danielle Pletka joins Market Domination Overtime to discuss the geopolitical tensions.

Pletka underscores that Iran's attack is not meant as an escalation and does not intend to target Americans or their assets in Israel. Instead, the nation is seeking to engage in a "tit-for-tat" strike against Israel for the killing of one of its senior Revolutionary Guard commanders in Syria, Pletka explains. "Iran is often more talk than action, more threat than substance," the American Enterprise Institute fellow states, making its possible moves hard to discern.

However, Pletka suggests Iran will not act directly. Instead, Iran is more likely to use its proxies in the region, among them Hezbollah and Hamas, Pletka explains. "When the Iranians tell them to jump, their response is 'how high?'" Pletka says of Iranian proxies.

As the election approaches and pressure grows from the anti-Israel contingent of Biden's party, Pletka notes an "equivocation" on Israel's war on Gaza. This departure from traditional support has sent a message to the region that the Biden administration "has gotten soft on Israel," Pletka says. Biden now aims to communicate that "whatever the message is to Hamas, those are not messages to Iran," Pletka states.

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Video Transcript

JOSH LIPTON: Israel reportedly preparing for an imminent attack on government targets from Iran. And President Biden saying early this afternoon he expects Iran to attack Israel sooner than later. Joining us now is Danielle Pletka, American Enterprise Institute distinguished senior fellow. Danielle, it is good to see you. So we do have these reports, Danielle, that Iran could be preparing here potentially for a strike against our ally, Israel. Some reports have said imminently. Walk us through, Danielle, how you're thinking about this threat.

DANIELLE PLETKA: So we're being told by everybody the Iranians, the Israelis, the White House that an attack is imminent. We've been told by the Iranians that this is not meant to be an escalation, that they are not going to, as they have in the past, target Americans or American assets or American troops, that they are simply trying to engage in what is a tit-for-tat strike against Israel for the killing of one of their senior Revolutionary Guard Commanders in Syria. That happened about 10 days ago.

What's actually going to happen? We don't know. The Iranians are often more talk than action, more threat than substance. Are they going to do something directly? I bet they won't. Are they going to use one of their proxies? Perhaps. Other than that, we don't really know. A lot of sound and fury, but so far, nothing concrete.

JARED BLIKRE: Could you just explain for the viewers and me, for instance, what are some of these proxy options that Iran may have that they've instituted, that they've gone through historically? What's on the table?

DANIELLE PLETKA: So the Iranians have a particular profile strategically. They do not like to act directly. So you very, very rarely see direct Iranian military action. One of the big exceptions that we saw was during the war, for example, in Syria after 2011. Half a million people were killed. There were Iranian army troops on the ground.

Usually, what they like to do is they use their very, very capable terrorist proxies. Who are these guys? We're talking about Hezbollah in Lebanon. We're talking about Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza. We're talking about groups called the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq. And then everybody has heard about the Houthis in Yemen. All of these guys more or less work for the Iranians. They have their own agenda. But when the Iranians tell them to jump, they're response is, how high?

JOSH LIPTON: And Danielle, the Biden administration has been publicly vocal about this, getting out front saying, listen, they stand by Israel. They support Israel. That's obviously a direct message to the Iranian regime. Do you think that has an impact, Danielle? Do you think that deters an attack?

DANIELLE PLETKA: I think it does have an impact. What we've seen over the last month or two is as the 2024 elections have approached, as there is more and more pressure on the president from the far left, the anti-Israel part of his party, we've seen real equivocation on the war in Gaza from the White House, where there's been messaging not simply from allies of the president like Chuck Schumer, the Senate Majority leader, that Bibi Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister has to go.

But also that the Israelis should not attack Rafah. That's a red line. That there have been a whole variety of steps away from our traditional support and partnership with the Israelis. And that has sent a message to the region. It's not just that one person gets the message that the White House seeks to send. Everybody gets that message.

And the impression in the region is that the Biden administration has gotten soft on Israel, soft on Hamas, basically is no longer supporting Israel in its war not obviously begun by Israel, but begun by Hamas on October 7. The Biden administration wants to be very clear to the Iranians that whatever their messages are to Hamas, those are not messages to Iran. That's a very tough tightrope to walk for them. And frankly, I don't think they've been doing a great job.

JOSH LIPTON: Let me ask you, Danielle, as you mentioned, Iranians operate in the region through its proxies, financing, supporting, and training Hamas and Hezbollah. What is the regime's broader strategic objectives in the region, Danielle? What do they hope to achieve?

DANIELLE PLETKA: So it's important to understand that Iran is an important country, right? It's not just that we talk about Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism or as a country that likes to murder women who are not wearing veils properly or that they have a nuclear weapons program. Iran is actually an important country.

This was historically, many, many, many years ago, a very, very important empire in the region. And the Iranians think of themselves this way. They are the Shia. There are two main branches in Islam. There are the Sunni, which makes up most of the Arab world. And then there are the Shia. Iranians are not Arabs. And they are the real leaders of the Shia world.

What they are looking for is a dominant, a hegemonic role in the region. They're looking to get the Americans out. They are looking to be the main power broker. Who stands in the way of that? Israel and Israel's new friends in the Sunni Arab world-- the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, maybe Saudi Arabia. So Iran has a very big agenda here.

JARED BLIKRE: One of the tools available is the global oil markets. And we've seen Iran get blamed for various attacks before, for instance, on Saudi Aramco facilities there, which shot up the price of oil, if only temporarily. We've also seen threats made in some of these very narrow waterways where vast shipments of oil flow through. What's the risk geopolitically speaking to the population of the world based on elevated oil prices and perhaps some kind of coordinated really full frontal attack on the oil market that we haven't seen before?

DANIELLE PLETKA: See, this is why I like going on a show where they talk about economics because in fact, you can't separate out these things. The price of oil is hugely important to a lot of people. And a lot of those people aren't our friends, right? The Russians want a high price of oil because they're exporting oil. The Iranians want a high price of oil because it's the main source of foreign exchange.

All of OPEC wants a high price of oil because for most OPEC oil exporting countries, it is their main source of foreign exchange. Joe Biden has an election in November. We've got terrible inflation. We've got lots of other issues on the table. And the one thing that people notice every single day of their lives is not what's happening with Iran, what's happening in Gaza.

What people really notice is damn, that gas cost me a hell of a lot at the tank, right? So this is something hugely important. So we've got that imperative for the Biden administration, which is to keep the price down. And we've got the interests of a lot of our adversaries which is to keep the price up. This causes a huge amount of mixed messaging.

JOSH LIPTON: Critical insight and analysis. Danielle, thank you so much for joining the show today. We appreciate it.

DANIELLE PLETKA: My pleasure.