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U.S. Recession Likely to End Late 2020 or 2021: NABE Survey

Yahoo Finance’s On the Move panel discuss the recent NABE survey that’s says that the BEAR market is over.

Video Transcript

JULIE HYMAN: Well, the bear market is over in stocks. Now economists say the US recession could be ending soon. A survey from the National Association for Business Economics found that a majority of economists say the recession will be over in the second half of this year, which is what we're in already, or at some point next year. At the same time, however, 80% say there's at least a 1 in 4 chance of a double-dip recession. So a little bit of good news, a little bit of bad news. Rick Newman, if we came out of recession, that could certainly have good political implications.

RICK NEWMAN: I don't think so. I think we have to think about recessions differently this time around. We had-- we just had such a giant hit to GDP. So, I mean, technically the way you define a recession, as long as you have GDP is increasing from quarter to quarter, then you're out of a recession. But we're likely to end up in a situation where, sure, we have GDP starts to increase again, but we lost 10% of GDP. So we could have increasing GDP and technically be out of a recession but yet be 9% below where output was a year ago, then 8% below, then 7% below.

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So I think this means it's going to be a very slow climb out of a very deep ditch, and that'll show up mostly in unemployment. I mean, we went from fewer than 6 million unemployed, and now we have 16 million unemployed. That nearly tripled. And when people-- you know, when you have widespread unemployment and then underemployment, people don't celebrate if you're technically out of a recession.

So President Trump needs us to be booming out of recession right now. And when you hear economists say maybe by the end of the year or maybe early in 2021, I mean, people are not going to be feeling like we're out of a recession for a long time.

JULIE HYMAN: Yeah, and to Will's point just there, the Main Street sort of Wall Street disconnect also could be problematic.

RICK NEWMAN: Never been bigger.

JULIE HYMAN: Yeah.