Trump, Biden and coronavirus in the 2020 election

Trump, Biden and coronavirus in the 2020 election

Video Transcript

RICK NEWMAN: From Yahoo Finance, this is "Electionomics." I'm Rick Newman.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: And I'm Alexis Christoforous. Welcome, everyone, to the "Electionomics" podcast. We here at Yahoo Finance are all broadcasting from our respective homes, as we do our part to social distance and to try to flatten that curve. So thank you all for being with us. I am here with my partner-in-crime, Rick Newman.

And this week, Rick, we are going to talk about how COVID-19 is having an impact on the 2020 election. And we're not talking much about the election. It seems like Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, has gone into hiding.

But we want to talk about how this virus could impact President Trump's chances of being re-elected. And I guess, the latest, Rick, is that Trump is saying we could reopen the economy in less than a month. He's looking at Easter now. Just first off, what are your thoughts?

RICK NEWMAN: Well, my read on what's going through President Trump's mind is he recognizes that you just don't win re-election as an incumbent president if there's a recession on your watch, especially if it comes late in your watch, leading into when voters go to the polls.

Now, obviously, many other things are going on here. I don't think any voters actually blame President Trump or would blame him for the fact that the coronavirus exists or that it arrived here in the United States. I mean, that would have happened under any president.

But there are some major questions about Trump's handling of it and about the federal government's response to the virus and the effect it's now having on basically the entire US economy.

So just to frame this conversation, Alexis, I just want to look up some-- so I'm looking into my webcam here, and my computer's over here. So I'm going to look over to this study that Larry Sabato, the political scientist at the University of Virginia, put up on his political site, which is called Sabato's Crystal Ball. Anybody can look this up. This is some analysis by Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist.

So Alan Abramowitz has done some good analysis on a president's re-election odds given two things-- his or her approval rating, but it's always been his. So approval rating and change in GDP in the second quarter of the election year.

So just to give you a sense of where this seems to sit for President Trump right now, President Trump's approval rating is about a minus 10. That's what it has been for most of his presidency. And we are now hearing projections that GDP growth could hit negative 3%, 4%, or 5% on a year over year basis in the second quarter.

So if we were to have negative GDP growth of 3%, so negative 3% GDP growth, Trump would only get 184 electoral votes. If GDP falls to minus 4% year over year, Trump's electoral vote total would fall to 164. And if it's minus 5% in GDP, Trump only gets 144 electoral votes. It takes 270-- 2-7-0-- electoral votes to win.

So if Trump only wins between 144 and 184 electoral votes, that is a shellacking. That's a wipe-out. That's not even a close election. So that's how the coronavirus is affecting Trump's re-election odds, at least on paper.

Now there are some people who think, well, maybe the country will rally behind President Trump and sort of view him the way you might view a wartime president when the nation would get attacked, such as George W. Bush after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

We had Anthony Scaramucci, the former Trump advisor, on our air recently on Yahoo Finance, saying, Trump could win. Scaramucci had been one of these sort of guys who backed Trump and then completely flipped and said that he's terrible. He's going to get creamed in November. But now with these developments, Scaramucci is saying, oh, maybe he could win.

We have no idea whether voters will rally behind Trump as if he's a wartime president. I do know that as of now, which is about 10 days after this whole thing really started to get bad, there's basically been no change in Trump's approval rating. I expect that to change one way or the other, because I mean, this is just such a profound event. Maybe people just don't know what to make of it. But I think as more polls change, that will change for Trump.

So Trump knows. He's got to get something going here. He's got to get the economy started again. He's got to do something about the millions of jobs we're going to lose. Obviously, he pays a lot of close attention to the stock market, which I know you've been talking about every day breathlessly, Alexis. So that is Trump's problem, and it's a big one.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: Now I want to get back to his approval rating. You said it's at minus 10%?

RICK NEWMAN: That's his net approval rating. So when you say the portion who approve minus the portion who disapprove, so let's say his net approval, I think the last time I looked at FiveThirtyEight, was around 44% net approval. And maybe disapproval was 52%. I mean, so that's 8%. His net approval then would be negative 8.

So he's in that range. He's been in that range of around negative 8, negative 10. I mean, he has had a negative approval rating his whole presidency.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: What about this concept of President Trump as a wartime president? I believe he said it himself during one of the numerous press conferences he's been having with the media. He likened the virus to war. And he was saying that he was a wartime president. What could he be doing, Rick, that he's not doing with the executive power he has to try and fight this enemy?

RICK NEWMAN: I think there's one huge thing. And it is go as big and aggressively as you can to ramp up testing. And the United States has lagged on this from the beginning. So we all know Trump was very dismissive of this virus. He said all these things that are going to come back to haunt him in the fall of general election. He said it will disappear, of the virus. He said we have it under control. We have it contained. He said all things like that. And all of that has turned out to be completely untrue.

But I think worse than that, we're now getting some understanding of why it took so long to get tests out there so we could figure out what in the heck was going on. So there have been good investigative reports by the Associated Press. I think Reuters has done something. There's another piece in "The New Yorker," of what took so long. And they were just stumbling and bumbling all along the way.

So the CDC had problems. There were mistakes in the test kits they sent out. And they had to redo some of those original tests. At the same time, there was no impetus from the White House, nobody from the White House really banging on heads. And this should have been happening in January, saying, hey, we really need to get on this. This could be-- this is sort of a five-alarm fire. We need to be throwing everything at this because look what's happening in China.

Now Trump has said things like, nobody could have known what would happen. That is not true. And the record clearly shows there were public health experts publishing op-eds in all the leading newspapers, saying, this is a bigger problem than anybody is acknowledging right now. Here are the things we need to do.

Ron Klain, who was the Ebola czar under President Obama, published something like that in "The Washington Post" in the middle of January, saying, we're not doing nearly enough. And now President Trump is saying, well, no one knew that it was going to be like this. That's not true.

So in a sense, if he wants to sort of go with that wartime president analogy, well, the wartime president let his guard down and allowed an attack to take place or did not respond as aggressively to an attack as he should have.

So to go back to your original question, the thing we must be doing now is testing as many people as possible. I mean, the ideal outcome here would be to have enough tests for multiple tests of the entire US population. Yes, 1 billion tests, and the idea is, if you can test everybody, then you can figure out. These people are fine. They had the test. They're fine, so they're free to move around. Now we know who can go around or go back to work or go shopping or do whatever. And we also know that these other people here are not OK.

And by the way, medical experts are saying that the actual infection rate is probably 10 times higher than the reported infection rate. So we've got tons of people in the country who are infected and don't know it. And they're walking around and infecting other people. The infection rate for coronavirus is much higher than it is for the flu. And the virus itself is considerably more dangerous than the flu.

So that's why we're having these exi-- exi-- I will get this right. I guess I want to say existential, but what I mean to say is exponential. We're having these exponential increases in numbers here in New York and other places. And that's going to be showing up in more and more places, so.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: Part of the issue is if you're not showing symptoms, you could be out and about and still spreading it. Now the president could say he wants the economy to get back up and running by Easter time.

But that doesn't mean that state by state, those governors are going to do that. If they're seeing what's happening on the ground within their own state, with their own health care workers on the front line, realizing that their hospitals are already maxed out-- I mean, we keep hearing, here in New York state, Governor Cuomo talking about it.

I actually have a sister who is an emergency room nurse, and she's telling me her hospital is just spread so thin. They have hospital beds up and down the hallways for people who are ill. She's saying they don't have the masks and other equipment they need to do their work. And she's afraid to go into work.

I mean, if those are the conditions-- and I'm hoping they're not-- three, four weeks out, regardless of what President Trump says, these governors are not going to get back to business as usual, right?

RICK NEWMAN: Well, and Governor Cuomo here in New York is actually saying it's going to get considerably worse here in New York. So he's saying, assuming we consider to do the things we're doing now, we're going to see the peak of this in 30 or 45 days. That's my understanding. And look, that would come after what President Trump is now saying. Let's get-- start reopening things around Easter, which is April 12th.

You know, the president cannot order local economies to reopen. That is up to mayors and governors. And, you know, people who don't have this in their community yet, I can understand why they don't appreciate the scale of the problem.

But any mayor, I think, if the people who run your health care system are telling you they are about to get swamped with more sick people than they can treat, and some of those are going to be fatal cases, and they are going to be having to let patients die that they might otherwise be able to save if they had the capacity, I don't think any governor faced with that choice and knowing that he or she would have to explain the consequences when they happen would say, I don't care. Let's just leave all the businesses open, and I'm not going to shut down bars and restaurants and barbershops and nail salons. We're just going to tolerate this public health emergency.

I mean, so for President Trump to say he's going to reopen businesses-- yeah, I mean, if he actually-- you know, he probably will not actually do that. You know, I think-- I get-- he feels like he wants to do that, but I don't see how he can. Because I mean, I just can't imagine any governor or mayor doing that and imposing that kind of a burden on the local health care system.

And I guess one last thing I'll say on this, Alexis, is, you know, I've been hearing-- so as I've been writing about this, I have been hearing from people who live in flyover country. And I say that-- that's a term of affection to me. I'm from Pittsburgh, which is flyover country. I grew up there, and I still have family there. You know, they kind of consider this an urban or a coastal thing and that maybe, you know, it's like a Sodom and Gomorrah phenomenon, and it's never going to come to them.

You know, it is going to hit rural communities. That's what all the epidemiologists are saying. And the problem could even be more acute there because a lot of rural communities have very limited hospital access. Some of them don't have any intensive care units.

And Governor Cuomo here in New York did say recently, he said what we've got going on in here, this is coming to your community, wherever you live in America. Look at us as the example of what's about to happen to you.

So for everybody who thinks that we in the media are exaggerating and overstating this, I regret to inform them that I think they will soon understand why this is so serious.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: I think that's an excellent point. And a couple of people that I know, they were not attacking when they said this, but they did say, look, I know you're in the media, and I think the media is just blowing this up. And you know, we would like nothing more than to be able to report better news about this, but you know, I'd like to think we are the conduits of a number of facts for people.

And we hope that people listen to what we're telling them because the only way to get a handle on this is, indeed, if each and every one of us practices social distancing, just because what's scary about this is we just don't know who has the virus and who doesn't. Again, coming back to that asymptomatic point.

RICK NEWMAN: Well, I know, but I mean, I just want to keep reminding people that's why it is so important to get testing. Massive testing capacity, and if we ever have to overdo it on some, just overdo it. You know, there is a-- you know, you have to think about the private sector. So we have all-- you know, a lot of companies now are trying to ramp up production, not just of tests, but of ventilators and masks and other things, the Personal Protective Equipment, the PPE, that health care workers need.

But, you know, they're even now, I think, rightfully reluctant to start mass producing stuff that is going to be needed. They don't know how long. They don't know how long it's going to be needed. So you know, in some parts of the supply chain here, they could be-- they could start mass producing stuff and end up stuck with a lot of stuff that they're just going to take a loss on.

So that is where the government needs to step in. That is actually the job of government, which is to help companies bear the risk or to take some of that risk off the companies when it's in the public interest and it's a national priority. And Trump just has not done this yet. I mean, he has talked about activating this DPA, the Defense Productive Act.

But he has not really used it to do much of anything so far. And I just think he's way behind on this. And, you know, we don't want to over politicize this, but this is going to become just a huge political issue in the fall. And voters are going to decide. Trump faced a crisis. Did he handle it well, or did he fail?

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: Yeah, and a number of governors, albeit a lot of them are Democratic governors, but still, like the Connecticut governor Lamont telling Trump, you know, I think you should just shut down the whole country for a little while, so we can wrap our heads around this.

And then, of course, Cuomo here in New York, the governor here, asking Trump to go ahead and invoke those powers and to put American companies at work to produce the products that we so desperately need. I want to, though, talk about Biden, Joe Biden. I mean, what happened?

RICK NEWMAN: Who?

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: It's like, he just went into hiding. I mean, we know, at least as of the recording of this podcast, Bernie Sanders has not yet dropped out of the race. You know, what's the latest there?

RICK NEWMAN: Joe Biden is still alive and well, as far as we know. He has started making some TV appearances via-- I saw one thing he did on TV. They said it was via satellite. But to me, it looked like it was just via a webcam, like I'm talking into right now.

So Joe Biden, so clearly, they're not doing any campaign events. And had we had normal voting, I think you're getting to the point that Bernie Sanders would probably be gone sooner if we had actual voting going on still, but a lot of those states have postponed their election.

So in a way, that's a reprieve for Bernie Sanders. He's way behind. He's going to lose, barring something unforeseen. But now, there are no additional votes for a while, so he's going to stay in. And he and Biden have both been sort of having their say about this. I don't think the media's paying it a lot of attention. And I think that's appropriate.

What Joe Biden-- Joe Biden is not the president. So there will come a time when, you know, he can present an alternative vision for what, you know, what he thinks needs to be done. But, you know, it's this delicate problem. So Joe Biden has been taking some shots at President Trump when he talks about this. He has outlined-- he has a plan. He does have a coronavirus response plan.

Again, he's not the president, and he's not in any position to enact that plan, so what's the point? But you know, there is a-- you know, this is politics, and it's not going to become genteel just because of this virus. So Biden is going to bide his time, I think. We will certainly be hearing a lot from him in this regard once he is the actual nominee, assuming he is.

And this is-- I'm sure this is going to be an ugly battle come the fall. One would hope that by the time the general election really heats up in September and October of later this year, one would hope that we have made some progress on this, and so that Biden is not really going after a sitting president, as he is having to make life and death decisions every day. But it could be in that position, and frankly, I will say, if this crisis is still that bad by September and October, I mean, I think Trump is toast.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: Oh, for sure. For sure. I mean, and that leads me to my next question. Is there a time-- so all of this is so time sensitive, right, Rick? But is there a time for Trump to turn things around for himself and have the American people view him in a more favorable light? Is there still time for him to do that in this pandemic?

RICK NEWMAN: I guess there is. I mean, we're about seven months away from November right now. I don't have a good feel for that, honestly. I mean, it's been my best guess. And this is not wishful thinking. This is what I think is actually going to happen based on the analysis I see. We talked about this at the beginning of the year. I do think Trump is likely to lose in November.

And I think that's for several reasons we've outlined before coronavirus ever popped up. You know, I think Mike Bloomberg's money is going to make a big difference. And Barack Obama has been on the sidelines totally silent I think once Barack Obama gets involved, which I assume he will. I think that's really going to help drive up Democratic vote.

But will we even have an election on the scheduled day? I mean, we probably will, but who knows? I think you have to ask yourself what prominent people-- I mean, a lot of well-known celebrities have gotten this disease. What if some of them start to die? What-- how will that affect popular opinion?

You know, since this is more dangerous to older people than to younger people, and it is-- you know, everybody is saying, everybody who knows about pandemics is saying this is going to get way worse before it gets better. I'm just wondering, what is that going to look like? And will voters let Trump off the hook for that when he could have been on this at least a month sooner than he actually was, and arguably almost two months sooner?

You know, I mean, do you feel like the stock market will be in better shape than it is right now by election day?

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: Well, boy, I hope so. I mean, as of this podcast, you've got the Dow off nearly 37% in just a month's time. I mean, how low are we going to go? I guess we still might test that. But all the experts I'm talking to say it's great, all the monetary and, hopefully, fiscal stimulus that's coming.

But at the end of the day, if the headlines about the virus don't get better, if we don't start to see things moving in the right direction regarding the actual pandemic and the health of Americans, they don't see how the market can actually start to turn around to build a sustainable rally. I mean, we haven't had back-to-back rallies on Wall Street in more than six weeks right now. And all the experts I'm talking to say, if you want just a glimmer of hope that you've hit bottom, you need to start seeing two or more consecutive up days for the stock market.

You know, I'd also hope that our medical professionals who are advising President Trump are talking about an exit strategy. How do we exit out of a lockdown? Because it's not just going to be a V-shaped recovery, as a lot of people had hoped in the beginning. I think it's becoming more and more clear that this can become a U-shape recovery for this market, I mean a much slower gradual move to the upside.

And I'm wondering, and at least I'm hoping, that there are plans for how we're going to vote come November. November is a long time away, but even when this economy gets back up and running, Rick, I don't know about you, I don't feel like running out and being with a bunch of people. And I don't feel like being in a line waiting to vote. So I'm hoping--

RICK NEWMAN: I mean, I know you and I [INAUDIBLE] the podcast again in the same room, I know that.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: Oh, I'll get into a room with you. That's not a problem. But I mean, when I have to go with a bunch of people, I don't know if I want to do that. So I'm hoping that, you know, our leaders are thinking about this and planning for a strategy out of this lockdown mode for a lot of states. And also, how are we going to vote?

RICK NEWMAN: Well, I think the-- I actually think we need to dispense with the idea of an exit strategy. Because I think this is going to be one of those things that you just muddle through. And you never know when you have actually won until maybe it's in the past at some point. And it's not going to be a decisive victory. I mean, the virus is not going to raise a white flag and say, I surrender. It's never going to be that.

So we do know that the development of a vaccine would be a definitive point at which everybody could get vaccinated. And then we might be able to say, OK, we finally got through this. But as everybody points out, that is 12 to 18 months away. And then everybody has to get the vaccine. So that would do it, but what happens in the meantime?

Can we get to a point where some parts of the economy come back online and we all feel that it's OK for certain people to get back together and do face-to-face commerce and events and all the things we used to do? Again, that depends on super aggressive public health strategies right now and testing, testing, testing.

So some of the physicians I've been following say you have to be prepared not just to test people once, but to test people multiple times. And you have to do things like sample the population, so just take a random sample of the population all around the country. So you can figure out what did we think the infection rate actually is, and then use that data to try to start narrowing in on what you think you need to do.

Can you identify places where the virus looks as if it has receded? And then maybe you could do sort of a contained comeback of economic activity in that area. By the same idea, identify hotspots. And as hotspots pop up, you need to, like, put these sort of quarantine hotspots around.

The huge problem we have right now is because we don't know who has it and who doesn't, we are going on the assumption that everybody has it and everybody is a spreader. So we have to have better information. This is really a data problem. And that means it's a testing problem.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: Which makes you wonder if Mike Bloomberg had stuck around, he's a data guy. Would he have had a better chance? He became mayor right after the tragedy of 9/11. Would he have had a better chance, do you think? We're just about up against time, but what do you think?

RICK NEWMAN: I am not seeing anybody showing real leadership in terms of mobilizing all the resources from public sector, private sector, military, anything else that's out there. Mobilize all of those resources into one giant national effort to get testing everywhere. It's happening-- it is happening everywhere, but it's happening, you know, a little bit. Here, New York is trying to do its thing. Illinois is trying to do its thing. Who's running the show? Not clear at this point.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: Yeah, we definitely need a more cohesive group effort here, even within our own borders. All right, well, certainly President Trump is going to be judged. It continues to be judged by how he handles this pandemic, and it could mean whether or not he remains in the White House come November. Still so many question marks.

And Rick, thank you for being with me. We're going to continue to talk about all this stuff in the days and weeks ahead in our "Electionomics" podcast. Thank you all for being with us. We hope that you are staying safe and being well. Make sure to follow me at @AlexisTVNews.

RICK NEWMAN: And me at @rickjnewman.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: All right, everybody. Until next time, be well.