On Tuesday, Spotify announced that 'The Joe Rogan Experience', one of the most popular podcasts in the world, is coming to the platform via a multi-year exclusive licensing deal.
On Tuesday, Spotify announced that 'The Joe Rogan Experience', one of the most popular podcasts in the world, is coming to the platform via a multi-year exclusive licensing deal.
As the coronavirus claimed its millionth life, people in Wuhan expressed sadness Monday at the continuing global impact of the pandemic -- more than nine months after it emerged in the central Chinese city.
Asian stocks rose Monday, tracking a healthy lead from Wall Street as bargain-buyers moved in following a recent sell-off, though advances were limited by worries about fresh virus spikes and the reimposition of economically damaging containment measures.
More than one million people have died from the coronavirus, according to an AFP toll, with no let-up in a pandemic that has ravaged the world economy, inflamed diplomatic tensions and upended lives from Indian slums and Brazilian jungles to America's biggest city.
After Donald Trump’s surprise victory in 2016, some Democrats are reluctant to believe the numbersThe numbers are looking pretty good for Democrats in Arizona. The party’s Senate candidate is up more than five points in polling averages, and Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by more than three points in the same averages. If those numbers hold, the state could hand Democrats the Senate and Biden the White House in one fell swoop.But a key Democratic organizer in the state can’t say whether he thinks the numbers will hold – because he does not believe the numbers exist in the first place.“I would say the polls are a mirage,” said Larry Bodine, president of the Democrats of Greater Tucson group. “After 2016, I decided from then on, I was just not going to rely on what the polls had to say, and instead rely on what my fellow Democratic volunteers encounter out in the field.”Inside Democratic party offices from coast to coast, and under a good number of roofs where anti-Trump voters dwell, polling results that show promise for Biden and down-ticket Democrats are being handled with a similar mix of arms-length trepidation and not-today-Satan refusal. Feeling they were misled by polling to believe that Hillary Clinton was a shoo-in in 2016, only to be ambushed by Trump’s win, many progressives in 2020 vow that they’re done with the numbers game.“I’m really active in Democratic circles and pretty much nobody talks about the polls,” said Bodine. “I believe that all the positive polls do is give a false sense of security.”That attitude seems to have little downside for political organizers. But the question of the reliability of polling has broader implications for campaigns, for public policy – and ultimately for daily American life, on issues ranging from racial discrimination in interactions with police to skepticism about a potential coronavirus vaccine.Ultimately, the health of polling is bound up in the health of the democracy, analysts say. Asking people what they think is, among other things, an expression of faith that what the American people think matters – a notion that can seem even more worthwhile amid Trump’s demand to “get rid of the ballots” in November.With those stakes hanging overhead, and under intense public scrutiny on the eve of a watershed election, pollsters across the country have made adjustments to address their mistakes of 2016 and are working hard to capture an accurate snapshot of 2020.The picture is not simple. While some key state polls were off in 2016, the national polls in aggregate were right on target, showing Clinton three points ahead at the end; she won the popular vote by two points but lost in the electoral college.The mistakes last time, according to a full buffet of postmortem analyses, included: pollsters did not have an eye on educational attainment as a potential fault line in the electorate; they were foiled by an unusual wave of undecided voters breaking for Trump at the last minute; there was too little polling in key swing states to really know what was going on; conclusions extrapolated from that paucity of data were broadcast with far too much certainty; and there might have been some “shy” Trump voters who didn’t want to say they were supporting him.The results remain a political shock. In the final days of the 2016 election, the “average” of the scant polling in Wisconsin had Clinton ahead 6.5 points. In Michigan, Clinton’s average “lead” was 3.6 points, while in Pennsylvania it was what looks in retrospect like an extremely tenuous 2.1 points. Yet Trump won all three states and with them the White House. The immediate criticism of the Clinton campaign was that it had failed to visit the upper Midwest, taking the voters of Michigan and Wisconsin for granted, lulled by the siren song of reassuring polls.But have the polls improved since then? Changes since last timeThe well-known and widely followed Franklin & Marshall College poll based in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, had Clinton ahead by double digits in the state in its last poll before the 2016 election. Trump won the state by a razor margin of fewer than 50,000 votes, or less than a percentage point.The director of the poll, G Terry Madonna, said an unusual wave of late-deciding voters mostly breaking in the same direction – toward Trump – created the polling blind spot.“In some cases, including ours, we were out of the field, meaning we completed the interviews, 10 days before the election,” Madonna said. “What we found in exit polls was that in the last 10 days 20-some per cent of voters made up their mind or they changed their mind and then went for Trump far more than for Clinton.”Madonna said this year the poll would stay in the field longer – and he sees fewer undecided voters this time.“When you have 85-90% of Republicans saying they approve of the job Trump’s doing, and Democrats are in single digits – people are locked in in this race,” Madonna said. “There’s a relatively small number of undecided voters. And it may turn out that what they do might make a difference, but it’s probably more important for the campaigns to get out their base of voters.”For readers who have decided not to ignore the polls: Franklin & Marshall released a poll on Thursday morning that showed Biden up by 6 points in the must-win state, where averages have Biden ahead by 4.1 points.Other state-level pollsters, including the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, have expanded their methodologies since the final days of 2016.Christopher Borick, the poll director, said that this year the poll was not only looking to the most familiar categories for insights on voter behavior – gender, age, region, party and race – but had also added one more category: educational attainment.“We had never included educational attainment as a variable in our weighting formula, largely because it never mattered,” Borick said. “When you went back historically over time, if you had weighted, it didn’t do much – it was a wash. But now we’re seeing more of a divide, where the upper-level attainment are voting one way and the lower are voting the other way. And that really started to emerge in this decade and blossom in 2016, to the point where I think it’s silly to ignore that.“And so we are now weighting with education attainment, and it does slightly move the polls. So our last poll had Joe Biden up four, with an educational weight built in. If we had not done that, like we did not in 2016, his lead would have been six points.” Communicating the limits of pollingOf 453 pollsters ranked by the FiveThirtyEight data analysis web site, the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion survey is one of only six to be awarded the top rating of A+. The poll gets the top rating based on its reliable track record, minimal observable bias, methodological rigor and the fact that it does the expensive, difficult, time-consuming kind of polling, meaning live telephone interviews, including calling cellphones.Muhlenberg’s last poll of the presidential field in Pennsylvania before the 2016 election had Clinton with a narrow, single-digit lead. The actual result – Trump won the state by less than 1% – was within the poll’s margin of error. Statistically speaking, the poll was not wrong.But Borick points out that when the gap between a poll number and an election result falls across the line separating winner from loser, it’s impossible to tell anyone the poll was not wrong.“If you looked at 2012, the polls were just about as off with Barack Obama against Mitt Romney, and they understated Obama’s performance that year,” Borick said. “But no one really cared at the end, if Obama won by one point or four points or five points, because it was all on the same side of the ledger. The error was going in the direction of the person that won it anyway.”“If you cross over to the other side, by even one vote, two votes, half a per cent, whatever – it changes the whole outcome, but the math isn’t all that different.”This election cycle could prove unusually challenging for pollsters because of a significant climb in the number of voters casting ballots early and via mail, said Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight. Silver forecast all 50 state results correctly in the 2012 presidential election and was one of the few polling analysts to articulate clearly on the eve of the 2016 election that Trump had a path to victory.“I do think the transition to high rates of mail voting is one of the bigger potential sources of polling error, especially with the mail vote likely to be disproportionately Democratic, although it’s hard to know in which direction the error might occur,” Silver tweeted this week.Borick said it was down to pollsters, especially academic pollsters, to explain what their results mean to a public that does not always think about election outcomes in terms of percentage likelihood and margin-of-error.“I think pollsters, people that do public opinion research, want to be able to give citizens a sense of where the broader public is on issues, on races, and to do that accurately. And to also educate about the limits of the very things we do,” Borick said.“We sample. We take small groups to make inferences about big groups. And that inherently has error involved in it. And trying to communicate the reality of what we do is a big role for us.”Bodine, the Arizona organizer, says those lessons are not for him.“Democrats should not take anything for granted, and my advice for them is to call up their local Democratic party and get active,” he said. “Stop yelling at the TV, stop complaining about what they see on the news and get out there and do something about it.”
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias in the northern Greek city of Thessaloniki Monday, the first leg of a five-day regional tour that will include Italy, the Vatican and Croatia. Tension in the eastern Mediterranean is to feature prominently during Pompeo's two-day stay in Greece, which will include a visit to the Souda Bay naval base on the southern island of Crete Tuesday. Frequently testy relations between Greece and neighboring Turkey have deteriorated sharply this year, particularly over maritime boundaries and exploration rights in the eastern Mediterranean.
Japan Airlines is ditching the phrase "ladies and gentlemen" and instead embracing gender neutral terms during in-flight and airport announcements from next month, the company said Monday.
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Armenian separatists in the breakaway region of Nagorny Karabakh said Monday 15 more of its fighters have been killed in a flare-up of a territorial dispute, bringing the total death toll to 39 as the fighting entered a second day.
Asian shares were mixed in muted trading Monday, ahead of the first U.S. presidential debate and a national holiday in China later in the week. China is celebrating its National Day and Mid-Autumn festival on Oct. 1, followed by a weeklong holiday through Oct. 8. China's statistical bureau reported Sunday that industrial profits rose 19% in August from a year earlier, as the economy recovered from the pandemic downturn.
Criticism of the law enforcement response to a protest in Portland, Oregon, late Saturday into early Sunday prompted Gov. Kate Brown to ask authorities to review “any alleged incidents” involving their officers. “Journalists and law enforcement officers have difficult jobs to do during these demonstrations, but I do still believe that we can protect free speech and keep the peace,” Brown tweeted.
Beijing's city government will protect "non-malicious" medical whistleblowers under a new law, passed months after a Chinese doctor was punished for sounding the alarm at the very beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic.
A US judge has ruled that a ban on TikTok ordered by the Trump administration will not go into effect as planned today. The decision means that the app will remain available to Americans for new downloads on Android and iOS stores.
President Trump paid no income tax in 11 of the 18 years from 2000 to 1018, The New York Times reported late Sunday, citing copies of tax records it had legally obtained from unidentified sources, but he did pay $750 in both 2016 and 2017.But he did report paying taxes on a number of his overseas ventures, which brought in $73 million in revenue (not profit) in his first two years in the White House, the Times reports. But "in 2017, the president's $750 contribution to the operations of the U.S. government was dwarfed by the $15,598 he or his companies paid in Panama, the $145,400 in India and the $156,824 in the Philippines."A Trump organization lawyer pointed out to the Times that Trump did pay more in federal taxes — likely meaning Social Security and Medicare contributions and taxes for his household employees. And the Times notes that Trump "paid substantial federal income taxes for the first time in his life," $70.1 million, from 2005 to 2007, when the tax-reducing power of nearly a billion in 1995 losses dried up and he started earning serious money from The Apprentice and related licensing deals — but he recouped most of that money, plus interest, starting in 2010 by taking advantage of an obscure provision of a bill passed after the 2008 financial meltdown.The $72.9 million tax refund Trump eventually secured has been under scrutiny by the Internal Revenue Service and the bipartisan Joint Committee on Taxation since 2011, and if the audit finds he cheated — the Times suggests that's at least possible — he could owe the U.S. government more than $100 million.Trump's foreign business entanglements also pose a long list of potential conflicts of interest, both foreign and domestic, and Turkey has been particularly aggressive in wielding its leverage, the Times reports. The good news for Trump is that the records the Times obtained don't "reveal any previously unreported connections to Russia." Read more (in depth or in brief) at The New York Times.More stories from theweek.com Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin backs Supreme Court delay tactics since 'we don't do anything around here anyway' 5 outrageously funny cartoons about Trump's election scheming Report: Financial records appear to show Ivanka Trump got 'consulting fees' to reduce father's tax bill
Japan's government Monday urged people to seek help if they were struggling to cope, following the death at the weekend of a popular actress.
Negotiators for the EU and Britain are hoping for a breakthrough in trade talks this week, despite feuding over a controversial UK bill that threatens to scupper a post-Brexit deal.
Saudi Arabia, which is presiding over the Group of 20 countries this year, said Monday that the upcoming November gathering of world leaders will be held virtually amid the coronavirus pandemic. The kingdom had originally planned to host world leaders for the G-20 summit in Riyadh before the pandemic, offering Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman the chance to share handshakes and wide smiles with presidents and prime ministers, such as Donald Trump, Russia's President Vladimir Putin, India's Narendra Modi and China's Xi Jinping.
Questions about President Trump's taxes continue, California braces for more wildfires and more news to start your Monday.
Kevin Kinard has visited Arkansas' Crater of Diamonds State Park numerous times over the last 25 years, and "never in a million years" did he dream that he would end up finding a 9.07-carat diamond.Kinard, a 33-year-old bank manager, first visited Crater of Diamonds State Park on a field trip in the second grade. On Labor Day, he went to the park with some friends to see if they could find any gemstones or minerals, and after sifting for about 10 minutes, Kinard decided to take a walk. While doing some surface searching, he spotted a crystal about the size of a marble. "It kind of looked interesting and shiny, so I put it in my bag and kept searching," Kinard said in a press release. "I just thought it might've been glass."At Crater of Diamonds State Park, visitors hunt for gemstones, rocks, and minerals on the eroded surface of a volcanic crater, and workers at the Diamond Discovery Center are available to help identify what they found. Kinard said he almost didn't stop to have his finds checked because he didn't think he came across anything special, and when he was told he discovered a 9.07-carat diamond — the second-largest ever found in the park's 48-year history — he was in "complete shock."Kinard decided to name his diamond the Kinard Friendship Diamond, choosing the moniker because "we love to travel together and had such a great time out here. It was a very humbling experience."More stories from theweek.com Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin backs Supreme Court delay tactics since 'we don't do anything around here anyway' 5 outrageously funny cartoons about Trump's election scheming Report: Financial records appear to show Ivanka Trump got 'consulting fees' to reduce father's tax bill
India reported its six millionth coronavirus case on Monday as it surged closer to the United States as the most-infected nation, and authorities pressed ahead with reigniting the economy.
The coronavirus crisis has hit West Bank restaurants hard. With dine-in restaurants mostly closed due to health restrictions, food trucks have allowed entrepreneurial businessmen to find a way to keep working. Issa Haj Yasin, an engineering student, opened his first food truck before the coronavirus crisis to provide himself an income to cover his university tuition and living expenses.