money SAG & DGA Nominations Give Real State Of The Race As Oscar Voting Begins Tomorrow – Analysis
After last night’s Golden Globes thing, we had only less than 12 hours to regroup and prepare for the real deal: First SAG nominations, and then DGA, the initial two major guild indicators of where the real sentiment might lie before Oscar voting begins Thursday. With the Producers Guild, often a very Oscar-predictive list as well, also coming Thursday, the best barometers of where industry thinking is at the moment will be on the table.
So what did the Directors Guild tell us? After two years in a row awarding female directors their top prize (Jane Campion, Chloé Zhao) and watching them go on to take the corresponding Oscar, it is time for the men to dominate once again. Although there were no surprises necessarily of who made the cut — Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans), Todd Field (Tár), Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick) — some of the omissions might have been eyebrow-raising, including James Cameron (whose Avatar: The Way of Water also was shut out at SAG except for its Stunts team) and Elvis’ Baz Luhrmann, both Globe and Critics Choice nominees for highly popular films.
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However, even with women showing great strides with DGA in the past couple of years, it seems a shame that neither Sarah Polley for Women Talking or Gina Prince-Bythewood for her epic work on The Woman King could not make the cut — not to mention female helmers for the likes of Till and She Said, to name a couple more in a very good year for women. Is it a sign that the guild — and the jobs — are still overwhelmingly male and a negative that those aforementioned two female-directed movies were about women talking and women fighting, with their gender prominently in their films title? I hope not.
On the bright side, the DGA’s list of Achievement by a First-Time Feature Film Director completely turns the tables, with only one lone male (John Patton Ford for the female-centered Emily the Criminal) able to crash an otherwise admirable all-ladies list of Alice Diop (Saint Omer), Audrey Diwan (Happening), Antoneta Alamat Kusijanovic (Murina) and Charlotte Wells (Aftersun). This is a very indie, very international, very female group DGA recognizes, and maybe that is to make up for omissions at the Big Kids table. Or maybe just a preview that a future generation of directors coming up are going to look very different from the pretty much all-white-male (Kwan is Asian) list that will get all the attention this year.
If the recent past is any indication, at least one of those nominated for DGA’s Directorial Achievement in Theatrical Feature Film will not make the directing cut at the Oscars, likely to go to a director for a foreign-language film, and probably not a woman. My guess would be Edward Berger for Germany’s All Quiet on the Western Front or S.S. Rajamouli for the wildly inventive RRR.
Kosinski’s presence on the DGA list is his first major awards mention, and so well deserved as Top Gun: Maverick didn’t direct itself to the biggest hit of 2022, in addition to wide acclaim. The nomination from this guild for the film, and inevitably one to come from PGA, shows its strength going into the Oscar race, this despite star Tom Cruise not making the cut at SAG this morning.
As for those SAG nominees, like the DGA’s strong track record over 75 years predicting Oscar winds, you cannot deny the impressive connection SAG’s award has achieved in its 29 years. Last year, all four acting winners at SAG went on to win Oscars in their respective categories, while eventual Best Picture Oscar winner CODA really took off on its way to the Dolby after collecting SAG’s version of Best Picture for Outstanding Cast (just as Parasite benefitted from its SAG Cast win in 2020). Although it has happened occasionally, it is very rare for an actor to win an Oscar without at the very least a SAG nomination first. The list the 2500-strong nominating committee came up with held few surprises. Austin Butler, Colin Farrell, Brendan Fraser and Bill Nighy have been in every conversation. However it was pleasant, and a little unexpected, to hear Adam Sandler got a slot as well for last spring’s Netflix film, Hustle. Sandler indeed has been hustling on the circuit, heavily supported by the streamer, and clearly it paid off at the expense of Cruise, Hugh Jackman and others hoping to make the cut.
The Female Actor lineup is so strong this year, stronger than the males, that it was inevitable some deserving performances would be left out. So, in were Cate Blanchett, Viola Davis, Danielle Deadwyler, Michelle Yeoh, and Ana de Armas, but out were Olivia Colman, Margot Robbie and, most shockingly, The Fabelmans’ Michelle Williams — who decided early to pass on campaigning for Supporting attention. She probably could have turned into a front-runner in that category but made a point of going for Lead because she felt it was so important for mother roles to be upgraded. The gambit didn’t pay off here, but I expect it will with Oscars. It should be noted that both Williams and Robbie did land SAG nominations this morning as part of the nominated Cast of both Fabelmans and Babylon. And BTW, if you think the latter film’s inclusion in the prestigious Cast category was a surprise, I would ask you, “Why?” It is a movie centering on Hollywood and actors.
Speaking of that, has SAG set up a fascinating scenario that also could play out at the Oscars? Can Elvis Presley and Marilyn Monroe, never nominated for an Oscar in their own lives, find themselves in the race care of Butler in Elvis and de Armas in Blonde, just as they are now at SAG? Wouldn’t that be interesting?
In the supporting categories, there wasn’t a single shocker amidst a boatload of possibilities. Paul Dano got the bid for Fabelmans over 87-year-old Judd Hirsch, who had some heat for his extended cameo. The inclusion of both Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan from the SAG-leading The Banshees of Inisherin seems like a continuing scenario, as does the front-running status for Everything Everywhere All at Once ‘s Ke Huy Quan, who killed in his Globes acceptance last night and looks unstoppable. The Good Nurse‘s Eddie Redmayne looks strong for an Oscar slot as well; he also has been one of the most visible performers on the circuit this year, and it is paying off. In Supporting Female, Angela Bassett, fresh off a Globes win, looks strong here too with Everything’s Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu likely to be dividing votes. Kerry Condon is great and has the advantage of riding the Banshees wave — interesting to note that all four of its nominated stars are first-time SAG nominees in any category — while Hong Chau’s placement for her brilliant turn as the Brendan Fraser character’s caregiver in The Whale was a smart and deserving move by SAG.
Thank God SAG has an ensemble category. It was made for movies like Women Talking with its virtually all female cast which could be the sleeper here over the casts for Babylon, Everywhere Everything All at Once, The Fabelmans and Banshees Of Inisherin. The latter three of those films have other opportunities for their individual actors, unlike Women Talking, which absolutely defines what a film ensemble should be: all for one and one for all. Take note of that, SAG voters.
A side note here: For the first time, there is no TV deal in place for this year’s SAG Awards, but it was announced this morning that Netflix will stream it beginning in 2024, and it can be watched this year on Netflix’s YouTube channel, and possibly other digital outlets run by the streamer. Perhaps this is all kismet because Netflix has to be pretty happy landing those nominations in Film for Sandler, de Armas, and Redmayne, none of whom were slam-dunks according to the punditry. As we speak, I bet Netflix is looking for every conceivable way, YouTube and otherwise, to get these 2023 SAG awards as visible as possible.
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