Mizzou football is an underdog against Arkansas. Can it cover the spread?

Matt Stahl, Columbia Daily Tribune

November 22, 2022 at 2:01 AM·3 min read

Missouri running back Cody Schrader, right, runs past New Mexico State linebacker Chris Ojoh (3) during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022, in Columbia, Mo. (AP Photo/L.G. Patterson)

There are plenty of places to spend your money on Black Friday. If you open the pages of the Columbia Tribune, you can probably find one of our beloved advertisers holding a sale on everything you could possibly want.

Washing machines, video game consoles, air fryers, whatever you need, it’s all available at a discount rate somewhere. You don’t have to waste your hard-earned on gambling.

All those other things are legal for purchase too. Sports gambling, as we remind you week after week to no avail, is not permitted within the borders of the state of Missouri.

So of course, as usual, the following information is for entertainment purposes only.

Arkansas –5

After last week’s big win over Ole Miss, it’s no surprise that the Razorbacks would be favored in this game. That performance didn’t seem to be a fluke, Arkansas simply took the Rebels to the woodshed.

Now bowl-eligible, the Razorbacks will look to continue rolling. Whether or not they can cover the spread will largely depend on the matchup between their offense and Missouri’s defense.

After a rough go against Tennessee, the Tigers held New Mexico State to 17 points on Saturday, despite a performance that head coach Eli Drinkwitz wasn’t fully pleased with. Friday’s matchup will be significantly more difficult.

The Razorbacks have plenty of offensive weapons. Quarterback KJ Jefferson and running back Rocket Sanders are especially dangerous.

Despite that, the unit has been inconsistent. Arkansas put up plenty of points against Ole Miss, Auburn and South Carolina, but was held to 10 against LSU, 19 against Liberty and 23 against Texas A&M.

Friday’s game is certainly winnable for the Tigers, who have kept every SEC game besides Tennessee within one score. If Blake Baker’s defense is able to show up once again and keep the Razorbacks at bay, Missouri will have a solid chance to cover the spread.

Nov 26, 2021; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks ruling back Raheim Sanders (5) runs the ball during the second quarter against the Missouri Tigers at Donald W. Reynolds Razorbacks Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Over/under 59.5

This one will depend, in significant part, on whether Missouri’s offense can play to its full potential. It certainly did on Saturday, putting 45 points up against New Mexico State.

It should be noted that seven of those points were scored by the defense on an interception return by Daylan Carnell. If the defense managed another score, that would certainly help the over, but it can’t be counted on.

Just as it has throughout the year, if MU wants to play its best offense, the line has to perform. That’s been a struggle.

If quarterback Brady Cook has the time, he is fully capable of finding the Tigers top players, including Dominic Lovett and Luther Burden, down the field. Drinkwitz has raved about running back Cody Schrader’s consistency during the 2022 campaign, and his ability to score from short range could help the cause.

However, the Tigers have also shown the ability to completely disappear offensively. The worst-case scenario for both MU and the over is a complete breakdown for the offensive unit.

It’s not doomsday thinking to expect that either. Missouri has improved, but the line has been shaky.

If the Tigers start to fall back into the “self-inflicted wounds” that Drinkwitz has made a scapegoat this season, Friday’s matchup could turn into a rock fight. Such a scenario would be a disaster for over-bettors.

Nov 19, 2022; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks head coach Shane Beamer signals first down against the Tennessee Volunteers in the second half at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports

National roundup

As usual, if you find a book that will take a bet on Missouri for either the national or SEC championships this season, bet somewhere else. The Tigers also don’t have anyone showing up in Heisman Trophy futures betting.

The Razorbacks are also unlikely to have anyone make a serious play for the Heisman, though Sanders probably would be a contender if the team had a better record. Jefferson can also still be found as a longshot pick.

After improving his stock with a huge performance against Missouri, Hendon Hooker likely fell out of the Heisman race with a season-ending knee injury on Saturday.

This article originally appeared on Columbia Daily Tribune: Missouri football; Spread and points total for Arkansas

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Arkansas –5

Over/under 59.5

National roundup

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