Kentucky Derby picks 2023: Winners, long shots and horses we like to finish in the money

Alexis Cubit, Louisville Courier Journal

May 5, 2023 at 5:00 AM·4 min read

It’s almost here.

The world’s best horses hit the track at Churchill Downs on Saturday for the 149th Kentucky Derby. Millions of dollars will be wagered at the track and all over the world on strong favorites and wild longshots. From stories looking back at Secretariat's unmatched legacy and win in the Run for the Roses 50 years ago to this year's contenders, The Courier Journal has broken the Derby down from every angle.

But who will win the Garland of Roses on Saturday night? Here are our 2023 Kentucky Derby picks.

Kentucky Derby betting strategy: Here are horses you should put money on

Jake Adams

Kentucky Derby contenders Angel of Empire, on the outside, and Jace's Road, inside, breeze together at the track Saturday, April 29, 2023, the week before the Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. Both horses are trained by Brad Cox, who has four total contending in the Kentucky Derby May 6, 2023.

Winner: Angel of Empire

On the board: Tapit Trice, Derma Sotogake, Kingsbarns

Long shot: Disarm

I learned last year (not that I needed a reminder) I know nothing about betting on horses. So this year I'm taking the March Madness approach: pick the stories I most want to root for. I'm going to go with my home state and Pennsylvania-bred Angel of Empire, which also satisfies the Louisville crowd with trainer Brad Cox getting his first win at the finish line. It would be awesome to finally see Steve Asmussen win the Garland of Roses, which makes for a fine longshot pick. Both of Todd Pletcher's top thoroughbreds will be right there at the end but fall just short. And now seems like the year a Japanese horse finally finishes in the money.

Ryan Black

Kentucky Derby contender Forte prepares for a bath Saturday, April 29, 2023, the week before the Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.

Winner: Forte

On the board: Tapit Trice, Confidence Game, Angel of Empire

Long shot: Reincarnate

Forte has never lost. Irad Ortiz Jr., who has won the Eclipse Award (for outstanding jockey) four times in the past five years, is having the best season of his career. And Todd Pletcher is the only trainer in the field with multiple Derby victories. And while some might say it's not creative to pick the favorite, my retort? Forte is the favorite for a reason.

Meet the 20 contending horses: Jockeys, records, trainers, everything you need to know

C.L. Brown

Kentucky Derby contender Practical Move inside his stall on Monday at Churchill Downs Monday morning May 1, 2023, in Louisville, Ky. May 6, 2023. The colt is trained by Tim Yakteen.

Winner: Practical Move

On the board: Forte, Lord Miles, Derma Sotogake

Long shot: Mage

Practical Move makes it four consecutive graded stakes wins and gives trainer Tim Yakteen his first Kentucky Derby win. Yakteen said he showed “he’s a horse that can get in a dogfight and keep giving it to you,” with his win in the Santa Anita Derby. That’s good to know in a 20-horse field where he’ll need to put up a fight for a mile and a quarter.

Alexis Cubit

Kentucky Derby contender Raise Cain on the track Tuesday morning at Churchill Downs May 2, 2023, in Louisville, Ky.

Winner: Raise Cain

On the board: Tapit Trice, Forte, Angel of Empire

Long shot: Lord Miles

I’m the person who's going for a great storyline. The most intriguing to me is Raise Cain. He’s named after the Bible story of Cain and Abel, and considering his half-brother, Forte, is also racing and the favorite with 3-to-1 morning-line odds, it would make a great story.

A first pump or a wave to the crowd: 5 Kentucky Derby prop bets to spice up your gambling experience

Jason Frakes

Kentucky Derby contender Tapit Trice was in a playful mood on the backside at Churchill Downs Monday morning May 1, 2023, in Louisville, Ky.. The horse is trained by Todd Pletcher.

Winner: Tapit Trice

On the board: Practical Move, Forte, Skinner

Long shot: Disarm

As good as Forte is, Tapit Trice seems on the cusp of passing him as Todd Pletcher’s top contender. The Blue Grass victory was a big step, and Tapit Trice has seemed to like the going at Churchill Downs the past few weeks and will give Pletcher his third Kentucky Derby victory.

Brooks Holton

Kentucky Derby contender Tapit Trice on the track on Sunday. April 23 2023 at Churchill Downs. Tapit Trice, trained by Todd Pletcher, won the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes in April and the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby in March.

Winner: Tapit Trice

On the board: Practical Move, Forte, Verifying

Long shot: Sun Thunder

Alexis did a great job breaking down Derby success by post position, so I'm going to trust the numbers this year. Tapit Trice is coming off a strong showing at Keeneland, running 1 1/8 miles in 1:50, and will be starting in Post 5, which has produced more winners (10) and on-the-board finishers (25) than any other position since the race began using a gate in 1930. The gray/roan contingent is also due for a trip to the winner's circle, with the last to get there being Giacomo in Derby 131.

Kentucky Derby silks 2023: See what the jockeys will be wearing Saturday at Churchill Downs

Natalie Pierre

Winner: Tapit Trice

On the board: Practical Move, Verifying, Derma Sotogake

Long shot: Lord Miles

From his impressive four-race win streak to drawing the post (lucky No. 5?) that has produced more Derby winners than any other, there’s a lot to like about Tapit Trice in the 149th Run for the Roses. We’ll see three things Saturday night: trainer Todd Pletcher will win his third Kentucky Derby; a gray horse will win the first leg of the Triple Crown for just the ninth time ever; and an 11th winner — and third in the last seven years — will come from Post 5.

Reach Louisville football, women's basketball and baseball beat writer Alexis Cubit at acubit@gannett.com and follow her on Twitter at @Alexis_Cubit.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky Derby 2023 predictions from The Courier Journal sports staff

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Jake Adams

Ryan Black

C.L. Brown

Alexis Cubit

Jason Frakes

Brooks Holton

Natalie Pierre

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