Karrin Taylor Robson v. Kari Lake has now become Doug Ducey v. Donald Trump

Oh, it’s on, Arizona.

Donald Trump v. Doug Ducey.

Only this time in heels.

The governor on Thursday endorsed Karrin Taylor Robson as his replacement, declaring, “There’s only one great candidate for governor this year.”

“Karrin is the real deal, pro-life, pro-gun and pro-wall,” he said.

Speaking of walls, I picture Trump throwing his lunch against the nearest one.

Ducey is Public Enemy No. 2 in the ex-president’s eyes (after Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who slaughtered his Trump-endorsed opponent in May). His “disloyalty” in siding with democracy over Trump – who can forget “Hail to the Chief” ringing from Ducey’s cell phone as he certified Joe Biden’s win in Arizona? – clearly sticks in the ex-presidential craw.

Does Trump's endorsement really help?

Trump on Wednesday urged his supporters to get behind Lake, whose sole qualification seems to be her refusal to accept the results of the 2020 election. He even urged them to get early ballots. (Oh, the irony.)

“The people of Arizona have a chance to get a truly great Governor, unlike the one you have right now,” Trump said.

Look for him to hit town later this month to stump for Lake and the rest of the crew he believes should be running Arizona.

But here’s the thing. While Trump remains wildly popular in Arizona – he’s viewed favorably by three out of four likely Republican primary voters – his endorsement hasn’t sealed the deal for any of his picks.

Senate? Secretary of State? Governor? All three races are still up in the air.

Recent polls show the governor’s race in a statistical dead heat. One survey, commissioned by Republican Matt Salmon shortly before he left the governor’s race last month, shows that Lake is now viewed unfavorably by 38% of likely Republican primary voters, up from 20% in December.

Ducey may not be a game changer, but he helps

At a time when she should be trying to expand her reach, Lake’s out with a new campaign ad this week showing her blowing up stuff at the border. Sure, that's guaranteed to thrill her supporters. But it’s hard to fathom how portraying yourself as unhinged works as a sales pitch to undecided voters.

Taylor Robson has virtually the same policy positions as Lake and is racking up an impressive string of conservative endorsements, headlined by Salmon last week, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich earlier this week and now, Ducey.

In addition to Trump, Lake, by contrast, is touting her endorsements from the election denial crowd, including Paul Gosar, the piillow guy, the 2000 Mules guy, Rudy Giuliani and state Sen. Wendy Rogers.

She's clearly worried because she took the radio after Ducey's endorsement was announced on Thursday morning, hinting that if she loses it'll be because the election was stolen. (Haven't we seen this movie before?)

"They're trying to pull what they pulled in the primary in Georgia, where they stole it again," Lake told Garret Lewis of KNST. "I think they're going to try that."

It's a strange statement from someone who claims to be up 20% in the polls.

Meanwhile, here in the real world, it's a tight race that’ll literally come down to the final vote cast. Ducey’s endorsement may not be a game changer but it’s a good get for Taylor Robson.

“A Ducey endorsement sends an unambiguous signal to donors and voters that Robson is a third term of the Ducey administration,” Republican strategist Nathan Sproul told me. “If you have been happy with the last eight years, you will really like a Robson administration.”

Karrin Taylor Robson has the advantage

Republican consultant Tyler Montague said a Ducey endorsement is “helpful to a degree.”

“But his popularity is still pretty low so I don’t know that it’s a big home run," he told me. “It’s nice to have though.”

Then again, Ducey's was never a favorite among the Ultra MAGA crowd, but Lake already has them anyway. The governor’s nod should send a signal to more moderate Republicans and independent voters – the ones who tired of Trump’s antics in 2020 and handed Arizona to Joe Biden.

The ones who know that Taylor Robson is the Republican Party’s best hope of winning in November.

The ones who will decide this race on Aug. 2.

Advantage: Taylor Robson.

Reach Roberts at laurie.roberts@arizonarepublic.com. Follow her on Twitter at @LaurieRoberts.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Karrin Taylor Robson v. Kari Lake is now Doug Ducey v. Donald Trump