Kamala Harris will have to work for the Black vote: Brennan Center Senior Fellow

Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi, Alexis Christoforous, Rick Newman discuss politics and Joe Biden’s Vice Presidential choice of Senator Kamala Harris, with Ted Johnson, Brennan Center Senior Fellow.

Video Transcript

TED JOHNSON: We do think this was a smart choice. The biggest thing that she brings is high name recognition. Because-- by virtue of her running for president, the world-- the nation got to know her quite well last year. And even her performance in some senate confirmation hearings elevated her profile. So she's well-known by virtue of her state offices that she's held and her being in the Senate.

She sort of has the governing experience. The biggest thing, though, I think she brings is that she inspires the Democratic base, which is to say the Black electorate. Black voters have voted for the Democratic nominee upwards of 90% for the last five decades. The question, though, is not about the share of the vote that Biden will get, but the level of black turnout that the ticket will inspire. And I think Kamala Harris sort of had the collection of qualities from experience, to inspiration, and name recognition that will allow her to help Biden increase Black turnout and give that ticket a pretty good shot at winning the White House this November.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: Yeah, Ted. There's talk that she might help him with the vote in states like North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, states that Hillary Clinton had disappointing results from the African-American population last time around. Would you agree with that?

TED JOHNSON: I do. But I think the biggest areas are Milwaukee, Detroit, and Philadelphia. Hillary Clinton lost those three states by 77,000 votes across the three states total. And in Detroit and Milwaukee alone, Black voter turnout was down 12% in 2016 from 2012.

So if Kamala Harris can get Black voter turnout in those three cities just back to where they were not even in 2012, but maybe 2004, 2008, then those states probably flip, everything else holding equal. Moreover, because of the amount of the level of the Black population in North Carolina, and Georgia, and in Florida-- and if those states are also close, as they've been in elections past-- Biden has a pretty good chance to flip maybe one or two of those as well. Between those six states, if he can flip half of them, he probably has the advantage in the electoral college. And Harris is a really good running mate to help him accomplish that.

BRIAN SOZZI: Rick, does Harris pull Biden more-- or further left in terms of economic policy?

RICK NEWMAN: You know, I read one piece of analysis this morning describing her as, quote, "an empty vessel" in terms of policy. And I think that was actually a problem for her during her presidential campaign. What did she actually stand for? Was she moderate or progressive?

And I don't think she ever really defined herself. And if you remember back to what she said about Medicare For All, at first she said, yeah, I'm for it. Let's get rid of private insurance. And then she backtracked on that.

That kind of, to my mind, illustrates that she is-- she can be whatever she wants. She's a bit of a cipher on this. And I think that means Biden will be the one who defines the policy. I don't think her role is to define the policy.

I do have a question for Ted. Ted, will her mere presence on the ticket energize the Black vote and raise Black turnout? Or is she gonna have to work for it? And if she has to work for it, what does she have to do?

TED JOHNSON: Yeah. So she's absolutely gonna have to work for it. And I agree with your point that she's-- she is such that voters can project onto her what they hope to see in her, because she's not so married to specific policies or principles that undergird specific policies that she-- she can't be divorced from them over the course of the campaigning.

But to your question about turnout, being Black ain't enough. She's gonna have to go to these cities and camp out in Detroit, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, in North Carolina, Florida, Georgia In order to get the turnout to increase. More over, she's going to have to lobby the Democratic party and the Biden campaign hard to expend resources in those areas to fund grassroots organizations that are going to be the real engine of Black mobilization in those-- the strategic areas that they need.

So if they count on her just showing up, making a few speeches every few weeks, and her being Black being enough, they're gonna be very disappointed come November. It requires a lot of work. But she's sort of tipped the scales in their favor if they're willing to put in the-- the time and resources.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: She's gonna have one debate with the vice president, Mike Pence, October 7. The Trump campaign already attacking Harris, Ted, calling her a radical, a leftist. President Trump, who actually gave to her campaign in 2011 and 2013, now calling her the, quote, "meanest senator of them all" because of how she treated Brett Kavanaugh during his confirmation to the Supreme Court. Is-- is President Trump in dangerous territory here?

TED JOHNSON: I don't think so. He is going to continue saying what he's been saying since, you know, decades, but certainly since 2015. He doesn't seem to pay a penalty when he says things that are borderline or over-the-line racist or sexist.

I don't imagine the messaging around Kamala Harris is gonna change too much from what we saw his attacks against Hillary Clinton. I think the-- the efforts to try to paint her as super socialist, or progressive, or liberal is just standard Republican talking points, which has very little to do with her record. Meanwhile, liberals, progressives on the far left are saying that she's not progressive or liberal enough.

So I think the attacks calling her a socialist is going-- they're gonna fall only on the ears of people who will believe anything he says or on deaf ears for folks who have a better understanding of Kamala Harris' record. I think, ultimately, it's going to-- especially when the vice presidents will debate, but even trying to caricature her-- a lot of attacks are gonna be very difficult to stick. And the only thing that they can rely on is the sort of standard playing card of calling her a socialist and some of the dog whistles around sexism and racism that have worked in the past for-- for the Trump base.

RICK NEWMAN: Ted, based on the way things stand now, who do you think is gonna win in November?

TED JOHNSON: So it's hard to say. I will say this, it's going to be a turnout election. And this is not going to be about either campaign flipping voters. I think it's going to be about which campaign can get their voters to the polls more. And if this were any other year, I would say that Biden and Harris have a pretty sizable advantage, and I would predict that they-- that they would walk away victors.

The unknown here is how COVID-19 plays into election turnout. We just don't know how-- which states or to what magnitude states will advertise mail-in voting or allow it. We don't know how prevalent the virus will be for folks that want to go in person and vote. So that makes turnout very difficult to predict.

So in any other year, I would say Black turnout increases probably 2% or 3% with Harris on the ticket and working towards mobilizing Black voters. But with coronavirus, it's really difficult to say. But I still believe that the edge goes to Biden and Harris not just because of the ticket, but also because of the approval ratings in the dismal economy of Donald Trump not helping his cause very much.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: All right. Still more than 80 days to go. Gentlemen, anything can happen. We know that. Ted Johnson, senior--

TED JOHNSON: For sure.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: --fellow at the Brennan Center for Justice, and our own Rick Newman, thanks so much for joining us.

TED JOHNSON: Thank you.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: And then be sure to check out this week's "Electionomics" podcast. A new one drops today. And this week Rick and I look at the president's executive actions to supply more stimulus to Americans during this pandemic.

Can it help? Or will it hurt his chances come November 3? Check it out at Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.