Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs predictions: Who do NFL experts pick to win?

Dan Rorabaugh, Florida Times-Union

January 20, 2023 at 3:49 PM·7 min read

The Jacksonville Jaguars pulled off a miracle win in the wild-card playoff round. Can they do it again vs. the AFC's top seed, the Kansas City Chiefs?

The Jags rallied from 27 points down to shock the Los Angeles Chargers 31-30 in front of a ravenous home crowd. Trevor Lawrence threw four interceptions in the first half but followed them with four touchdowns. Travis Etienne, Evan Engram and company will have to keep that second-half energy going to keep up with Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the high-flying Chiefs.

These two teams have already faced each other this season. On Nov. 13, Mahomes threw four touchdowns in a 27-17 win in Kansas City. It was coach Andy Reid's second victory in as many games against Doug Pederson, his former quarterback-turned-assistant coach.

KC will be looking to qualify for its fifth straight AFC Championship Game. The last time they didn't make it that far? 2018, when the Jaguars came a quarter short of making the Super Bowl.

Times-Union predictions:Our picks for Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs

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Who will take the next step to the Super Bowl? NFL experts and analysts make their predictions:

Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Chiefs 34-17

The Jaguars' defense has been living on big plays vs. consistently slowing down teams vs. run and pass. Andy Reid has gotten a more methodical and versatile offense going around Patrick Mahomes. The Jaguars will have trouble handling diverse targets such as Travis Kelce and Jerick McKinnon.

Trevor Lawrence will keep passing well on an inexperienced secondary and Jacksonville can also stay in the game by getting the ball to running back Travis Etienne Jr. to get him in the open field. They just won't be able to match the firepower and execution of Mahomes in Arrowhead.

John Breech, CBS Sports: Chiefs 31-24

The Jaguars have enough firepower to keep this close as long as Trevor Lawerence doesn't do anything crazy, you know, like throw four interceptions in the first half. Although I think the Jags will be able to hang with the Chiefs, I can't pick the upset here. My main issue with the Jags is that their biggest weakness on defense is stopping tight ends and that's not a weakness you want to have when you're facing Kansas City's offense.

The Jaguars surrendered 1,087 receiving yards to tight ends this year and 13.1 yards per reception to tight ends, which were both the third-worst in the NFL. Travis Kelce might have 300 receiving yards by the time this game is over. If the Jags go all-out trying to shut down Kelce, then that will almost certainly open other things up for everyone else on the Chiefs' offense. The Jags are going to have to pick their poison and it's going to lead to a slow death, which brings me back to my original point: The only things guaranteed in life are death and Andy Reid winning off the bye, and taxes, I guess, but only if you actually pay them. (And if anyone from the IRS is reading this, I actually love paying taxes. It's literally one of my three favorite things about living in this country).

Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk: Chiefs 30-27

The Chiefs are on upset alert. It will not surprise me at all if the Jaguars win the game. They’re loose. They have nothing to lose. The Chiefs may be peeking past the Jaguars, with a much-hyped Bills rematch looming. But, ultimately, I’ve got faith that Patrick Mahomes will find a way to advance. Even if it isn’t nearly as easy as people think it will be.

Gerry Dulac, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Chiefs 38-28

The winning team in the wild-card round averaged 32 points while the losing team averaged 23.1 points, but this could surpass that. The Jaguars have proved on three occasions this season that no deficit is too large to overcome, not even 27-0. The Chiefs won an earlier meeting in Arrowhead 27-17, but that was before the Jaguars got on a roll. They will need to score 30 or more points for the ninth time this season if they want to advance to the conference championship.

Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: Chiefs 30-23

Both have a group of weapons greater than the sum of its parts, lifted by brilliant play-callers and savvy quarterbacks who win before the snap more than they are given credit for. But let's not get carried away with Trevor Lawrence's development here. He's great, but he's not Patrick Mahomes-in-2018 great, much less Patrick Mahomes-in-'23.

If all things are similar outside of the quarterback, Mahomes is better at creating angles and firing on-target throws that defy expected completion percentage. It should be a fun one -- eight points feels like too big a point spread -- but the Jags' run ends here because this Jags defense hasn't improved that much.

Bill Bender, Sporting News: Chiefs 34-24

Both teams closed the regular season on five-game winning streaks. Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne have been difference makers, and the defense stopped the Chargers' running game. Kansas City presents a far-more difficult challenge on the road, and Patrick Mahomes II is 8-3 in the postseason with 28 TDs and seven interceptions.

Which teams contains the tight end better? Jacksonville's Evan Engram has been a huge piece in the second half of the season for the Jaguars, and Christian Kirk and Zay Jones both had 80-plus catches. Kansas City's Travis Kelce, who had 110 catches, can flat-out take over a game

The battle of former Eagles coaches Andy Reid and Doug Pederson will be the headliner, and the Jaguars will hang around for a half. The Chiefs won the regular-season matchup 27-17. The same margin holds here in a higher-scoring game.

Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk: Chiefs 30-20

The Jaguars already being in the divisional round in Year One of Doug Pederson and Year Two of Trevor Lawrence is a great sign for where this team is heading. But they’re not yet on the level of the team Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have in Kansas City. This is where the Jaguars’ impressive season comes to an end.

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Chiefs 34-28

The Chiefs beat the Jaguars 27-17 in November, but that was a different Jacksonville team and the game really wasn't as close as the score. That Jacksonville team was struggling on offense, while this one is not. The Chiefs will be a real problem for the Jacksonville defense, which has struggled at times against the pass. The Jags don't rush the passer that well, which is a big advantage for Patrick Mahomes. Jacksonville didn't have a sack in the first meeting. That's always an issue against Mahomes. I do see the Jaguars scoring against a Chiefs defense that can be beat as Trevor Lawrence plays well. But I don't see the Jaguars slowing down the Chiefs offense. Look for Mahomes to put up some big numbers, which the Jaguars won't be able to match. The Chiefs will roll on to the AFC title game.

Nick Musial, Sporting News: Chiefs 33-21

The final score in their Week 10 contest (27-17) was a bit misleading, as Kansas City had its way for essentially the whole game. The Chiefs' ability to keep Patrick Mahomes clean in the pocket should result in another double-digit home victory. Kansas City returns to its fifth-straight AFC Championship game and covers the spread in the process.

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Jaguars vs. Chiefs predictions: Experts pick NFL playoff game

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