FiveThirtyEight updates CFP odds after Tuesday night’s Rankings release

Phil Harrison

November 10, 2021 at 7:23 PM·6 min read

We’re at it again. We keep following the updated odds for Ohio State and other contenders to make the College Football Playoff, and we’re following the lead of the popular analytics website FiveThirtyEight on the whole deal.

Each week — in fact twice a week — the fine folks at FiveThirtyEight update their College Football Playoff Predictor based on a formula derived from historical rankings of the CFP Committee. In fact, from the website itself:

“Our model uses the College Football Playoff selection committee’s past behavior and an Elo rating-based system to anticipate how the committee will rank teams and ultimately choose playoff contestants, accounting for factors that include record, strength of schedule, conference championships won and head-to-head results. It also uses ESPN’s Football Power Index and the committee’s rankings to forecast teams’ chances of winning. (Before Nov. 2, when the CFP will release its first rankings, the Associated Press Top 25 poll is used instead.) The teams included above either have at least a 0.5 percent chance of making the playoff or are in the top 25 in at least one of the three rankings we use in our model: FPI, the Elo-based rating or CFP/AP. Every forecast update is based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season. Full methodology »”

That’s all a fancy way of saying developer Jay Boice and statistic modeler Nate Silver are a lot smarter than you and I.

We last checked in on the model after last weekend’s games, and we’re taking a look again after the second iteration of the CFP Rankings were unveiled on Tuesday night. So, here’s how the odds for Ohio State and all the other contenders that have 10% or greater chance of making the College Football Playoff stack up now.

But first, here’s how things looked prior to Tuesday night.

And now, here’s where things stand at the moment counting down from the least odds to the best.

Michigan State Spartans (8-1)

Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker III, right, celebrates after a run against Nebraska during overtime on Saturday, Sept. 25, 2021, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/13 – vs. Maryland
11/20 – at Ohio State
11/27 – vs. Penn State

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

10% (up from 9%)

Chances if win out

98% (up from 97%)

Texas A&M (7-2)

Sep 4, 2021; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies running back Devon Achane (6) celebrates his touchdown in the third quarter against the Kent State Golden Flashes at Kyle Field. Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/13 – at Ole Miss
11/20 – vs. Prairie View
11/27 – at LSU

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

12% (down from 14%)

Chances if win out

42% (down from 54%)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1)

Dec 28, 2019; Orlando, Florida, USA; The Notre Dame Fighting Irish mascot celebrates the field goal against the Iowa State Cyclones during the first half at Camping World Stadium. Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/13 – at Virginia
11/20 – vs. Georgia Tech
11/27 – at Stanford

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

14% (no change)

Chances if win out

32% (up from 31%)

Michigan Wolverines (8-1)

Michigan Wolverines defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (97), linebacker Josh Ross (12), and defensive tackle Christopher Hinton (15) get ready during second-half action against the Western Michigan Broncos Saturday, Sept. 4, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/13 – at Penn State
11/20 – at Maryland
11/27 – vs. Ohio State

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

17% (no change)

Chances if win out

84% (down from 85%)

Oklahoma State (8-1)

Oklahoma State’s Spencer Sanders (3) celebrates during a 24-14 win against Baylor on Oct. 2. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/13 – vs. TCU
11/20 – at Texas Tech
11/27 – vs. Oklahoma

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

23% (down from 25%)

Chances if win out

98% (no change)

Cincinnati Bearcats (9-0)

Cincinnati Bearcats linebacker Darrian Beavers (0) celebrates after forcing a rushed throw in the second half of the NCAA football game on Saturday, Sept. 4, 2021, at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati. Cincinnati Bearcats defeated Miami Redhawks 49-14. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/12 – at USF
11/20 – vs. SMU
11/26 – at Eastern Carolina

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

33% (up from 30%)

Chances if win out

67% (up from 62%)

Oregon Ducks (8-1)

What Oregon coach Mario Cristobal said about Ohio State postgame

Sep 11, 2021; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Mario Cristobal during the second quarter against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium. Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/13 – vs. Washington State
11/20 – at Utah
11/27 – vs. Oregon State

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

37% (no change)

Chances if win out

98% (no change)

Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1)

Ohio State still hanging steady in latest USA TODAY AFCA Coaches Poll

Ohio State Buckeyes running back TreVeyon Henderson (32) tries to sneak through the center during Saturday’s NCAA Division I football game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers in Lincoln, Nebraska, on Nov. 6, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/13 – vs. Purdue
11/20 – vs. Michigan State
11/27 – at Michigan

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

42% (no change)

Chances if win out

98% (no change)

Oklahoma Sooners (9-0)

Oklahoma's Lincoln Riley would play Ohio State as a replacement game

Sep 26, 2020; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners head coach Lincoln Riley reacts during the first half against the Kansas State Wildcats at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/13 – at Baylor
11/20 – vs. Iowa State
11/27 – at Oklahoma State

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

43% (down from 45%)

Chances if win out

> 99% (no change)

Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1)

Jan 11, 2021; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban leads his team onto the field before playing then Ohio State Buckeyes in the 2021 College Football Playoff National Championship Game. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/13 – vs. New Mexico State
11/20 – vs. Arkansas
11/27 – at Auburn

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

53% (no change)

Chances if win out

> 99% (no change)

Georgia Bulldogs (9-0)

Dec 12, 2020; Columbia, Missouri, USA; A detailed view of a Georgia Bulldogs helmet during the second half against the Missouri Tigers at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/13 – at Tennessee
11/20 – vs. Charleston Southern
11/27 – at Georgia Tech

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

80% (up from 79%)

Chances if win out

> 99% (no change)

[listicle id=67075]

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Remaining Schedule

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

Chances if win out

Remaining Schedule

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

Chances if win out

Remaining Schedule

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

Chances if win out

Remaining Schedule

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

Chances if win out

Remaining Schedule

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

Chances if win out

Remaining Schedule

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

Chances if win out

Remaining Schedule

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

Chances if win out

Remaining Schedule

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

Chances if win out

Remaining Schedule

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

Chances if win out

Remaining Schedule

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

Chances if win out

Remaining Schedule

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

Chances if win out

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