Expert picks for Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes, one of the final Kentucky Derby prep races

Cameron Drummond

April 7, 2023 at 11:17 AM·4 min read

The Road to the Kentucky Derby is just days away from ending, and one of the last critical races that will help set the 20-horse Derby field takes place this weekend in Lexington.

The 99th edition of the $1 million, Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass will be run Saturday at Keeneland Race Course as part of opening weekend of the 2023 Keeneland Spring Meet.

Post time for the Blue Grass is 5:15 p.m., and it’s set to be the ninth race of Keeneland’s Saturday schedule.

The race is one of the final four Kentucky Derby qualifying races still to be run this Derby prep season. Two others will also occur Saturday: the Wood Memorial (Aqueduct) and the Santa Anita Derby (Santa Anita).

All three of Saturday’s qualifying races — the Wood Memorial, Blue Grass and Santa Anita — will award qualifying points to the top-five finishers on a 100-40-30-20-10 scale.

The 11-horse field for the Blue Grass (1 1/8 miles on dirt) was set on Wednesday and features the following horse, trainer and jockey combinations, from the rail out:

Tapit Trice (Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez), Clear the Air (William Walden, Ricardo Santana Jr.), Verifying (Brad Cox, Tyler Gaffalione), Classic Car Wash (Mark Casse, Javier Castellano), Hayes Strike (Kenny McPeek, James Graham), Scoobie Quando (Ben Colebrook, Luan Machado), Sun Thunder (McPeek, Florent Geroux), Blazing Sevens (Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz Jr.), Major Blue (D. Wayne Lukas, David Cabrera), Raise Cain (Colebrook, Joel Rosario), Mendelssohns March (McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr.)

Ahead of the Blue Grass, the Herald-Leader solicited expert opinions on the race, including the projected winner and the rationale behind the selection.

Here’s who you should be looking at for potential winning bets for the 99th running of the Blue Grass Stakes.

John Clay

Herald-Leader

Winner: Tapit Trice.

Comment: Todd Pletcher hasn’t hit the board in the Kentucky Derby since 2018. He’s back with vengeance this year thanks to Forte and Kingsbarns. Tapit Trice is the best colt in the Blue Grass and will give Pletcher a triple threat on Derby Day.

Cameron Drummond

Herald-Leader

Winner: Verifying.

Comment: In a lackluster Blue Grass field that is without a standout horse, consider buying (relatively) low on a horse that has harbored high expectations.

The son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify got stuck behind horses during his fourth-place finish last time out in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn.

If Verifying gets away clean from his No. 3 starting gate, there’s a decent chance he could provide trainer Brad Cox with a second Blue Grass win in three years, as well as race his way into the Kentucky Derby field.

Dan Issel

UK basketball great, ESPN 680 Louisville radio host

Winner: Verifying.

Comment: He was too close to a fast pace in a muddy running of the Rebel and should get a better trip this weekend. Plus, Brad Cox and Tyler Gaffalione are a great jockey-trainer combination.

Kevin Kilroy

Racing analyst at Fair Grounds, notes writer for the Kentucky Derby, TwinSpires edge tipper and writer

Winner: Mendelssohns March.

Comment: This is a serious racehorse that will offer a big price. He has overcome trip and track excuses to go 2-for-2, proving his versatility over turf and dirt, on the lead and off the pace.

At first glance, he looks bred for turf, but the sire and dam have produced strong dirt route runners, including half-sibling Mr. Big News, who finished third in the 2020 Kentucky Derby.

Louie Rabaut

Horse Racing Happy Hour Podcast and Green Sheet Racing, ESPN 680 Louisville radio host

Winner: Mendelssohns March.

Comment: He won via disqualification his first time out on turf, and came back and won on slop against winners. Watching replays matters, and he took a ton of mud in getting to 2-for-2. I think Kenny McPeek is tipping his hand by having Brian Hernandez Jr. in the irons. Love the 20-1 (morning-line) number on him.

Ben Roberts

Herald-Leader

Winner: Mendelssohns March.

Comment: You don’t have to look too hard to find significant knocks on any of the favorites in this field, and while Tapit Trice is certainly the one to beat on paper, his last win left plenty of questions and that inside post won’t do him any favors. So, in a race with no true standouts, why not take a chance on a possible up-and-coming long shot?

This colt out of the barn of Lexington native Kenny McPeek has a largely turf-leaning pedigree, but there looks to be enough there to make a splash in what should be his first start over a fast track. Mendelssohns March won his debut via disqualification on turf in February before winning on a sloppy track at Oaklawn last month.

Sure, it might be too much too soon for the least-seasoned starter in this group, but it’s worth taking a shot in a race that could go a few different ways.

Guide to Saturday’s $1 million 2023 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland

Five questions to be answered in Saturday’s Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland

The field is set for the 99th Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. See the full field with odds.

Kentucky Derby Watch 2023: Forte emerges as clear favorite with race now a month away

Riders up: What to know as the 2023 Spring Meet gets underway at Keeneland

AFP
Brazil's Lula discharged from hospital following emergency surgery
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was discharged Sunday from a Sao Paulo hospital following emergency surgery to treat an intracranial hemorrhage.Lula will remain in Sao Paulo until Thursday, when he will undergo follow-up tests.
CNN
Federal response to mysterious drone sightings draws bipartisan criticism
Lawmakers from across the political spectrum on Sunday criticized the federal government’s response to mysterious drone sightings in the Northeast, as officials emphasize there is no evidence of a security threat.
Reuters
Greece to scrap some bank fees for retail customers, parliament approves budget
Greece will scrap bank fees and charges for some retail transactions as part of measures to help households cope with a cost-of-living crisis, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said on Sunday. Addressing Greek parliament, before it approved the 2025 state budget which puts growth at 2.3% next year, Mitsotakis said that Greece will also legislate a 0.5 euro ceiling on money transfers up to 5,000 euros. Greece, he said, plans to scrap charges on transactions with the state and utility companies.
NBC News
‘Political opportunists’ threaten to primary Republicans who oppose Trump’s picks, says GOP senator
Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., on Sunday blasted those who have promised to fund primary challenges against Republican Senators who oppose President-elect Donald Trump's cabinet picks,calling them 'political opportunists.'
CNN
Netanyahu says he spoke with Trump about need for ‘victory’ in ‘very warm’ phone call
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that he had a “very warm” phone call with US President-elect Donald Trump, during which they spoke about the need for Israel’s victory in its war on Hamas in Gaza.
Politico
Republicans stoked fears of noncitizens voting. Ohio shows how rhetoric and reality diverge.
It's a real rarity.
USA TODAY
California DMV apologizes for license plate, car owner's son says it's 'misunderstanding'
The California DMV apologized for a license plate appearing to mock the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel. The car owner's son said it was being misinterpreted.
USA TODAY
Donald Trump's transition team wants to scrap a car crash requirement opposed by Elon Musk's Tesla
The Trump transition team wants the incoming administration to drop a car-crash reporting requirement opposed by Elon Musk’s Tesla.
CNN
Romney stands by Trump criticism but says MAGA is now the Republican Party
Sen. Mitt Romney, a frequent Donald Trump critic who will soon retire from Congress, stood by his criticism of the president-elect’s character but said Trump and his MAGA movement now define the Republican Party.
AFP
Syrians return to ruined homes in city that became Hezbollah hub
Residents of Qusayr in central Syria are finally returning home after the departure of Hezbollah fighters, who helped Bashar al-Assad's forces seize the city a decade ago and left with his fall."Most areas in the city of Qusayr were off-limits to us," said 22-year-old resident Ali Khleif.
USA TODAY
Mitt Romney predicts JD Vance will be 2028 GOP nominee: 'MAGA is the Republican Party'
Sen. Mitt Romney called Vice President-elect JD Vance "smart, well spoken, part of the MAGA movement."
CNN
The Wanted’s Max George shares update on his heart condition from hospital
Singer Max George is opening up about a health issue that he says will keep him in the hospital through the holidays.
NBC News
Singer in Iran arrested after performing on YouTube without a hijab
A woman was arrested in Iran after she posted a video of herself singing without a hijab on YouTube, despite the Iranian parliament passage of a new, stricter law on women's modesty that has been criticized by rights groups.
Time
New Tests Reveal AI's Capacity for Deception
A paper by Apollo Research found that in certain contrived scenarios, AI systems can engage in deceptive behavior.
AFP
Gaza rescuers say Israeli strikes kill 22 Palestinians
Gaza's civil defence agency reported Sunday that Israeli strikes across the Palestinian territory had killed at least 22 people, including an Al Jazeera TV cameraman and three rescuers.Civil defence spokesman Mahmud Bassal confirmed Louh had been killed in the strike that "targeted the Civil Defence site" in Nuseirat camp, also killing three members of the rescue agency.
AFP
Once a leading force, Assad's Baath party wiped off Mideast politics: analysts
The Baath party, once a powerful symbol of Arab nationalism, has become a fading relic of authoritarian rule in the Middle East after the fall of Syria's Bashar al-Assad, analysts told AFP on Sunday.- Diminishing 'appeal' - The Baath had evolved into authoritarianism under Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Hafez al-Assad, and later his son Bashar, in Syria.
Reuters
US needs to do more make cyber attackers pay, Trump adviser says
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's administration will examine ways to impose higher costs on private actors and U.S. adversaries who wage cyber attacks on America, Trump's pick for national security adviser, Representative Mike Waltz, said on Sunday. The comments come after U.S. allegations of a sweeping Chinese cyber espionage campaign known as Salt Typhoon that targeted and recorded telephone calls of senior American political figures. The White House has said at least eight telecommunications and infrastructure firms in the United States had been affected and a large number of Americans' metadata was stolen in the sweeping cyber espionage campaign.
Associated Press
US agencies should use advanced technology to identify mysterious drones, Schumer says
After weeks of fear and bewilderment about the drones buzzing over parts of New York and New Jersey, U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer is urging the federal government to deploy better drone-tracking technology to identify and ultimately stop the airborne pests. The New York Democrat is calling on the Department of Homeland Security to immediately deploy special technology that identifies and tracks drones back to their landing spots, according to briefings from his office. Schumer’s calls come amid growing public concern that the federal government hasn’t offered clear explanations as to who is operating the drones, and has not stopped them.
USA TODAY
'Can we eat now?': Cracker Barrel protested after special needs students denied service
A crowd gathered Sunday afternoon outside the Waldorf, Maryland Cracker Barrel where a group of special needs children were denied dine-in service.
NBC News
Bob Casey looks back on two decades in the Senate — and to a future without Trump on the ballot
Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is one of the longest-serving senators in Pennsylvania’s history.

John Clay

Cameron Drummond

Dan Issel

Kevin Kilroy

Louie Rabaut

Ben Roberts

Latest Stories