What to expect from Colts quarterback Sam Ehlinger statistically?

Two months ago, the question was whether the Colts would keep Sam Ehlinger as their third quarterback or hope he'd get through waivers and to the practice squad.

Sunday, they'll ask the second-year, sixth-round draft pick to lead the franchise to the playoffs.

What should we expect? It's basically impossible to know given the unprecedented nature of this move but let's see if we can come up with some general comps, take some wild leaps in logic and generate a very specific statistical line for Ehlinger.

52.4%

Sunday, Ehlinger will have already bucked the odds. There have been 275 quarterbacks drafted in the fifth, sixth or seventh round in the NFL draft according to pro-football-reference.com. Of them, 144 -- 52.4% -- never started a game.

12.7%

So Ehlinger has already exceeded expectations but starting one game isn't solving the Colts' quarterback issue. Only 35 of the 275 quarterbacks -- 12.7% -- started as many as 30 games.

Ehlinger starting 30 games would be an incredible accomplishment but it also isn't guaranteed to fix the Colts' quarterback issues. Among those 35 quarterbacks are Gary Hogeboom and Craig Erickson; both played for the Colts, both failed to establish themselves as capable signal callers while doing it.

Comps: Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tyrod Taylor

This isn't getting at the issue but it's important to set the expectations here: There's only a 12.7% chance -- based on NFL history -- Ehlinger becomes as much as a below average NFL quarterback. Keep that in mind as we go forward here.

But forget all that. Forget he's defying the odds just by starting. Forget there's a small chance he'll start 30 games. All that matters is the best-case scenario.

Let's find similar quarterbacks to Ehlinger in NFL history. He's listed at 6-3, 225 pounds so we'll pull in every quarterback drafted in the fifth, sixth or seventh round between 6-1 and 6-3 and 215 and 230 pounds using pro-football-reference.com's stathead tools.

That gives us 48 quarterbacks. Another reality check: More than half -- 25 -- started 0 or 1 games ... and we're only pulling in the quarterbacks that appeared in a game. But, again, only interested in the best-case scenario now.

Four were successful NFL quarterbacks: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel, Tyrod Taylor and Derek Anderson.

One of the advantages Ehlinger brings to the Colts is his mobility so we'll eliminate Cassel and Anderson; neither was a rushing threat in college and thus not a reasonable comp for Ehlinger, who rushed for 1,903 yards and 33 TDs in four seasons at Texas. Fitzpatrick rushed for 878 yards and 11 touchdowns in his two seasons as a starter for Harvard, Taylor had 2,196 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns in four seasons at Virginia Tech.

79.2

Fitzpatrick was forced into three starts as a rookie with St. Louis. He went 0-3 with a 58.2 passer rating ... and didn't start another game for three more years. He then made 20 starts over two seasons and improved ... to a 69.9 passer rating.

Matt Ryan's passer rating is 84.7 this season.

Fitzpatrick then developed into an average or better quarterback but was more than one game over .500 in a single season in his 17 years.

Tyrod Taylor didn't start an NFL game until Year 5. When he did, he made the Pro Bowl, posting a 99.4 passer rating.

We're back to where we started -- nothing like this has happened in NFL history. But, again, we're going with the best-case scenario. So we'll take Fitzpatrick's first five seasons then Taylor's first four seasons as a starter in an effort to balance out the fact he barely played his first four years.

The result: 59.8%, 3,480 yards, 19 TDs, 14 INTs and a 79.2 passer rating. Throw in 400 or so rushing yards.

That, remarkably, is almost exactly the season Taylor Heinecke, Washington's starting quarterback Sunday, produced in 2021: 65.0%, 3,419 yards, 20 TDs, 15 TDs, 85.9 rating, with 313 rushing yards and a score.

It'd be great if Ehlinger emerged as an effective quarterback. If anyone can defy the odds, it's Ehlinger, based on how his coaches and teammates talk about him. But understand the odds he's facing when he makes his first start Sunday.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Colts: What to expect from quarterback Sam Ehlinger statistically?