Dimon looks at geopolitical risk for hints about depth of possible recession

The CEO of the largest bank in America, Jamie Dimon, is eyeing world events for signs of how severe a potential recession in the U.S. may be.

Many on Wall Street, including Dimon's own bank, JPMorgan Chase, predict the U.S. will tip into recession early next year.

"It's turbulent," Dimon said of current geopolitical risk. "It's like anything can go wrong," he told CBS News "Face the Nation" moderator Margaret Brennan in an exclusive interview.

He pointed to a range of risk factors — including Russia's war in Ukraine, fiscal turmoil in emerging markets, U.S. competition with China and rising oil and food prices — as things that will determine the economic outlook.

Dimon also said the Federal Reserve was probably behind the curve in adjusting policy to combat rising prices.

"Look I think the Fed, you know, anyone can look and say you were late. I hate second guessing people, because I make mistakes all the time," Dimon said. "But now they've kind of caught up."

Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested there could be a slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes. But, Dimon thinks there may be room for more action after that.

"They may have to do a bit more after that, which will obviously probably catch people by surprise," Dimon said.

He told Brennan that he thinks the Fed will ultimately prevail in its efforts to contain record high inflation and get it closer to its preferred level of 2%.

"I think they're going to win. I don't think it's going on for 10 years," Dimon said. "The only question is how long it takes to get it down to a number that people think you've kind of won."

Still, the economic climate and path forward for inflation are uncertain. At an event at the Brookings Institution last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that it's hard to know how long inflation will remain high: "The truth is that the path ahead for inflation remains highly uncertain."

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