DeSantis faces the true test of any Florida governor

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Gov. Ron DeSantis spent his first term becoming one of the most influential Republicans in the country — a likely 2024 frontrunner who’s already shaping his party’s national agenda.

But DeSantis still hasn’t faced one of the toughest challenges a Florida leader can encounter: a major hurricane.

That’s poised to change this week as Hurricane Ian, a 500-mile wide monster of a storm, builds strength in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and appears destined to slam into some portion of Florida’s west coast.

The hurricane is on track to make landfall in the state just six weeks ahead of the November elections and, depending on how well the governor responds to the potentially catastrophic storm, DeSantis may emerge more popular or open himself up to criticism.

Though no governor will frame hurricane responses in political terms, storms shaped the legacies of former Republican Govs. Jeb Bush and Rick Scott, both of whom dealt with multiple major weather events. While no elected official wishes for a major natural disaster, hurricanes offer almost unlimited access to free national media, a huge boost to any governor’s political fortunes.

“Fail a response: hard to get reelected, and your agenda stalls,” former Federal Emergency Management Agency administrator Craig Fugate, who served as Bush’s emergency management director, said in a text message. Do well, though, and it “adds capital to your agenda, and sets you up for higher office.”

Each storm brings its own set of policy and political challenges, and Hurricane Ian is no different. Set aside the immediate life-and-death challenges of responding to a storm, one of the biggest issues DeSantis faces is how the storm will affect Florida’s already faltering property insurance market. Many have long feared that a large hurricane could force some of Florida’s smaller domestic carriers to go belly up, further damaging the state’s already rickety marketplace and leaving policyholders hanging.

Forecasts Monday showed the storm slowing down and potentially ravaging portions of the Gulf coast for two or three days, an outcome that could bring massive flooding and powerful storm surges. Some projections show the hurricane making landfall near Tampa, a coastal city that has not seen a direct hit since 1921. Mandatory evacuations are expected in both Hillsborough and Pinellas, two of the state’s most populated counties.

“This has really developed into a really big storm,” DeSantis told reporters on Monday at the state Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee. “Just the impacts are going to be far and wide.”

Through Monday, DeSantis held three briefings at the Emergency Operations Center, a regular venue for governors managing storm responses. He has not, however, put himself out into the public as much as Scott, who oversaw statewide responses to four hurricanes during his eight years as governor.

As storms approached, Scott would hold media events across the state, donning his trademark Blue Navy baseball hat. He also became a fixture on national television, including most notably on the Weather Channel. Scott appeared on every morning network show on the same day in the lead-up to Hurricane Irma, a massive storm that prompted the largest evacuation in state history in 2017. On Monday morning, DeSantis' emergency management director, Kevin Guthrie, was a guest on the Weather Channel, but DeSantis has not yet made an appearance on the channel during this weather event.

DeSantis is also setting aside his overtly pugilistic politics as Ian bears down. He praised the Biden administration after the president on Saturday declared a state of emergency for Florida, which allows FEMA to begin coordinating efforts ahead of the arrival of the storm. It was a rare compliment from a governor who has used Biden as a political heel on a range of partisan issues as he prepares for what could be a 2024 run for the White House.

“They stand by ready to help, so we appreciate that quick action,” DeSantis said.

DeSantis quickly declared a state of emergency for more than two dozen counties that could potentially be affected, mobilized thousands of Florida National Guard troops, suspended tolls, coordinated with utility companies and major grocery chains about bottled water supply — all early steps needed before the arrival of any major storm. In 2020, Hurricane Sally affected the "extreme western part" of the Florida Panhandle but primarily struck Alabama, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As he begins to hold daily news conferences, DeSantis’ focus has steered away from politics, but it’s not yet clear whether his reelection campaign will take down political ads or suspend political activities.

DeSantis, who was roundly criticized by Democrats after flying migrants to Martha’s Vineyard, has not facilitated another flight since Sept. 14.

DeSantis has developed a reputation as a deeply partisan fighter. His largely hands-off pandemic response and eagerness to pick a wide range of culture war conflicts has given him coast-to-coast name identification and made him a top tier potential Republican nominee for president. But it also transformed him into one of Democrat’s biggest national boogeymen and a central figure, along with former President Donald Trump, in Democrat’s national messaging.

For his critics, casting that aside will be a key measure for his storm response.

“I hope the divisiveness that has defined Florida and national politics doesn't impact the ability of people to follow the directions of their leaders,” said Democratic Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber. “Florida politicized vaccines and masks, and the results were tragic. We can’t afford to make the same mistake again.”

The hurricane also could pose a threat to Biden if the recovery is mishandled, much as then-President George W. Bush was roundly criticized in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans in 2005.

A campaign spokesman did not return a request seeking comment. A spokesperson for Democratic challenger Charlie Crist said Sunday night his campaign is monitoring the situation.

“As of right now we have not made any final decisions as far as ads,” said Sam Rodriguez, a Crist spokesperson. “But we are preparing to mobilize and deploy campaign assets in any way we can to support potential recovery efforts.”

Crist previously served as Republican governor of the state from 2007 to 2011, a time when Florida saw no hurricanes make landfall. He did make headlines in 2017, when, as a member of Congress, he traveled to Israel and put a note in the Western Wall in Jerusalem that read “Dear God, Please protect Florida from storms and other difficulties. Many thanks for your blessings. Faithfully, Charlie.”

Mishandling a hurricane, like any natural disaster, can hurt any governor. Former GOP New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was generally praised for his response to Superstorm Sandy in 2012, one of the deadliest hurricanes of that year. But conservatives grew suspicious of Christie after he appeared with then-President Barack Obama and praised him after the White House speeded up assistance to the state.

Former Gov. Jeb Bush handled nine hurricanes during his two terms from 1999 to 2007, including a staggering four in 2004 alone. His response to those storms was generally well-received and earned him bipartisan praise. His competent management of so many storms prompted the Miami Herald to dub him “Governor Hurricane” in the run-up to his failed 2016 presidential bid.

Scott generally got high marks for his hurricane management and turned that into a political boost. After Hurricane Irma, Scott saw an uptick in his approval rating as he was preparing to challenge Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson in a 2018 race Scott ultimately won.

That “bump” was noted at the time by St. Leo University Polling Institute Director Frank Orlando.

“Rick Scott has enjoyed consistently strong approval ratings during 2017, and he certainly received a small bump for the way he handled a difficult hurricane season for the state of Florida,” he said.

CLARIFICATION: This story has been updated to add that Hurricane Sally affected the western part of the Florida Panhandle in 2020.