money Debt ceiling: CBO finds government could be at risk of default ‘between July and September’
A Congressional Budget Office report released Wednesday projects the date when the government will no longer be able to pay its debt obligations fully “will fall between July and September 2023," further shaping the contours of the coming debt ceiling fight on Capitol Hill.
The agency further warns that its projected exhaustion date — commonly known as the X date — remains uncertain due to ambiguity over how much in income tax receipts will come in this April.
If revenue comes up short, especially in areas like capital gains receipts or if U.S. income growth slows by more than CBO expects "the extraordinary measures could be exhausted sooner, and the Treasury could run out of funds before July,” the report notes.
"We'll get more information on that in April and into May," CBO Director Phillip Swagel told reporters during a roundtable after the report's release, promising additional updates from his group then.
The U.S. formally hit the debt limit on Jan. 19 with the Treasury Department beginning its extraordinary measures — accounting maneuvers that move money around to delay when the government can't meet its bills. The risk of default comes when these measures run out.
Wednesday's report, which was prepared in response to interest from Congress, says that without action, the government will be in a situation of needing "to delay making payments for some activities, default on its debt obligations, or both."
Outside observers have projected that a default — or even the threat of a default — could have market-rattling effects and possibly send the economy into a recession.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen similarly warned of "irreparable harm" in January if lawmakers do not address the issue in a timely manner. She also said then that "it is unlikely that cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted before early June."
House Financial Services Committee chair Patrick McHenry (R-NC) responded to Wednesday's release, noting “no one is saying we won’t raise the debt ceiling. But Congress must use this as an opportunity to take stock of the federal government’s spending, which has been unsustainably high for far too long."
Insights in the the overall economy
The CBO is a federal agency tasked with providing budget and economic information to Congress. The dual releases Wednesday of the “Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, February 2023” and “The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033” also provided insights into the overall U.S. economy, analyzing how it will develop over the coming decade — if current laws remain unchanged.
The detailed economic report — which clocked in at 101 pages — also took a look at the overall economy, with Swagel saying in a director's statement that his group foresees "stagnant output, rising unemployment, gradually slowing inflation" over the coming year before a rebound in years thereafter.
The agency also projects much weaker GDP growth in 2023 but then improvements in 2024–2026 alongside the overall economy.
The projections also include plenty of uncertainty, Swagel said, noting "there's this mixed aspect" to the economic picture right now, especially with continued resilience in the labor market.
The report also projects a federal budget deficit of $1.4 trillion for 2023 with the shortfall growing to $2.7 trillion in 2033 without any action. It projects that the overall debt will gradually rise from 98% of GDP in 2023 to 118 percent in 2033.
Maya MacGuineas, the president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, added in a statement that the report shows "it’s time for policymakers to stop grandstanding and demagoguing these important issues and wake up to the reality: we will need to make changes to spending on Social Security, Medicare, and other programs, and we need to raise the necessary revenue to fund them."
"Everything should be on the table," she added.
Both reports are sure to be key guides for lawmakers, the White House, and the Treasury Department in the months ahead as all sides wrestle with resolving the growing debt ceiling crisis, the possibility of a U.S. default on its obligations, and the setting of spending levels for 2024 and beyond.
This post has been updated.
Ben Werschkul is Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
Click here for politics news related to business and money
Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance
Download the Yahoo Finance app for Apple or Android
Follow Yahoo Finance on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Flipboard, LinkedIn, and YouTube
