Cowboys CeeDee Lamb to be even more toxic in 2022

Tuesday marked the start of the Dallas Cowboys organized team activities, better known as OTAs, for the 2022 campaign.  This is the first official sneak peek of the club’s new roster.With notable players departing via trade or free agency and new players joining the roster, the team will certainly look different from the 2021 version.

The most intriguing changes happened in the wide receiver camp. The Cowboys traded Amari Cooper to the Cleveland Browns, lost Cedrick Wilson and Malik Turner in free agency, signed former Pittsburgh Steelers WR James Washington,  re-signed Michael Gallup to a five year $62.5M deal and drafted Jalen Tolbert from South Alabama with the No. 88 pick of the draft.  Whew.

When the Cowboys selected Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb with the No. 17 pick of the 2020 NFL draft and assigned him jersey No. 88, he was destined for the top rung. Having Cooper on hand allowed Lamb time to develop into the the group leader. The time has come for Lamb to assume the mantle of WR1.

Let’s take a deep dive into Lamb’s resume to see how that may pan out for the Cowboys in 2022.

The Basics

(AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth)

Through two seasons, Lamb has amassed 153 receptions, 2037 yards and 11 TDs. That’s an average of 76.5 receptions, 1018.5 yards and 5.5 TDs a season.

How does that compare to other notable No.1’s through two seasons?

Some of the notable names on this list came into the league under similar circumstances as Lamb, not expected to be the No. 1 receiver right away.  Lamb’s overall numbers compare favorably to many of the top receivers in the league through two seasons.

The 10-year average for the receivers listed above Lamb through two seasons:
112 targets, 72 receptions, 64.3% catch rate, 1005 yards, 15.2 ypr and 6 TDs

Lamb’s average through two seasons:
115 targets, 76.5 receptions, 66.2% catch rate, 1018.5 yards, 15.2 ypr and 5.5 TDs

From a sheer production standpoint, Lamb has been on average with some of the best receivers in the league through their first two seasons in the NFL.

Can he break big plays?

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One important trait of a dynamic wide receiver is the ability to generate big plays. One of our favorite metrics at CowboysWire is Toxicity. This refers to the frequency an offense or defense generates or surrenders big plays throughout the course of a game in addition to the turnover margin.

With WRs we look at explosive receptions which are 20+ yard gains on passes thrown to that receiver.

In 2021, Lamb ranked 13th overall with 20 explosive receptions for a total of 16% of his targets turning into 20+ yard gains for the Cowboys.  Cooper, Wilson and Gallup combined for 32 total explosive passing plays.

Data per: http://www.sharpfootballstats.com

Outside or inside?

(AP Photo/Brandon Wade)

A common discussion of Lamb’s talent centers around whether or not he is a true outside receiver or if he does his best work out of the slot. While the sample size is not large enough to definitively answer this question, the data does show that Lamb was utilized more from the slot but more explosive when playing on the outside in 2021.  Lamb had three 100+ yard receiving games in 2021, he played an average of 72.2% of his snaps out wide those games.

In 16 games, Lamb lined up more on the outside in 11 of them. The data shows Lamb is targeted at a higher rate when playing more snaps in the slot but his yardage per target suffers.

Lamb’s per game average for each:

More snaps outside: 6.9 targets, 4.45 receptions, 67.45 yards, .36 TDs
More snaps in slot: 8.8 targets, 6 receptions, 72 yards, .4 TDs

The good news for Dallas is that he was productive in both scenarios and any dropoff in terms of production in either role was not noticeably large in either direction.  In games where he played more in the slot, he had a higher rate of targets and receptions but less yards per target and outside was the opposite story.

The ability to play on the inside and outside with equal effectiveness shows versatility that will allow the Dallas Cowboys to utilize him in a plethora of ways to put pressure on a defense.

Conclusion

(AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth)

Lamb’s production through his first two seasons in on par with some of the best receivers in the NFL. His ability to generate big plays for the offense ranks in the top 15 overall and his inside/outside versatility lends the opportunity for the Dallas Cowboys to utilize his skillset in numerous ways.

In 2021 fans saw Lamb play outside, inside and even in the backfield.  With his ascension to the No.1 spot on the depth chart this year, his targets and overall production should increase substantially as well.

Another factor will be the WR depth opposite of him in Dallas to start the season. WR Michael Gallup is likely to miss a portion of the season as he rehabs from ACL surgery. The Cowboys will have veteran WR James Washington and rookie Jalen Tolbert as the next two WRs behind Lamb early in the season.

Based on his usage, versatility, ability to create big plays and production vs his peers, CeeDee Lamb projects to take a big step forward.

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