Carson Wentz in Indianapolis: Where do the Colts go from here?

During the past off-season, the quarterback carousel was a driving factor for the majority of football discussion. Between the potential for — and eventual selection of — five first round quarterbacks, along with the rumors about trades for Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers, quarterbacks were the hot topic.

They often are.

Another of the quarterbacks that found a new home was Carson Wentz. After regressing, or as some might argue collapsing, during his final season in Philadelphia with the Eagles, Wentz was traded to the Indianapolis Colts, reuniting him with his former coach, Frank Reich.

When the move was made, Reich was quick to praise his former, and new, quarterback:

The relationship between Wentz and Reich was a reason for making the move, and the trade mirrored how general manager Chris Ballard had addressed the quarterback position the season prior. Speaking to Colin Cowherd after the NFL draft, Ballard had this to say about the trade for Wentz:

For a while, it looked like that trust was paying off. With just two games remaining, the Colts looked like a lock for the postseason. Indianapolis sat at 9-6 on the year, and the Colts had just defeated the New England Patriots and the Arizona Cardinals, two franchises that eventually secured their own berths in the playoffs. Jonathan Taylor emerged as an MVP candidate, and it seemed like the trade, while costing the Colts a first-round selection with Wentz reaching the 75% snap threshold, had paid off.

Then, the final two weeks happened.

Similar to Wentz’s collapse last season in Philadelphia, the Colts crashed themselves out of the playoffs. Needing one win in the final two games, Indianapolis first lost to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 17.

Perhaps one can explain that game away, as the Raiders also secured a playoff berth on the season’s final regular-season play. Indianapolis just needed to win in the season finale, against the Jacksonville Jaguars. A team destined to pick first overall yet again, an organization facing an outburst from the fan base that led to litigation from a sponsor, a team that fired its head coach midseason after reports surfaced that he kicked a player during training camp, a story that proved to be the last straw in a barnful of hay.

The Colts lost, and shortly after the final play their fate was sealed with results around the league.

That collapse has led to introspection among the organization, including this from Ballard today as he addressed the media:

Where do the Colts go from here? To try and answer that question, we need to look at the trade, at Wentz, and look ahead to the future.

Revisiting the trade

Before diving into Wentz’s play this season, it is worth revisiting the trade, and how it was viewed at the time.

As outlined above, part of the reason for the move by the Colts was the ability to pair Wentz with Reich, a former coach who helped develop Wentz early in his Philadelphia days. When the team made the move, Reich talked about what went wrong for Wentz, reflecting on how his “superpowers” seemed to wane during his time with the Eagles:

However, Reich still believed there were things Wentz could do better:

Comments like these, coupled with the concept of reuniting the two, led some to believe that the marriage could work. That Wentz could revive his career under the watchful eye of a coach who had been there with him before, helping develop him from a rookie who showed flashes into a potential MVP candidate in his second season, before an injury ended his sophomore campaign.

The key to fixing him, at least in part? Was restoring his confidence. By the end of his time in Philadelphia, Wentz’s confidence was shattered. He was missing reads and throws that he missed while at North Dakota State. He was too afraid of losing his job, that he was too afraid to do his job.

When the trade went through, I wrote this:

However, where some were hopeful, others were hesitant. Timo Riske of Pro Football Focus wrote this at the time of the trade, which looks rather prescient today:

But, with the trade made, Indianapolis needed to make it work.

How it worked

(Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports)

As noted, the trade seemed to work, at least for a while.

With the calendar year, and the season, drawing to a close the Colts were in playoff position, and looked to be playing some of their best team football down the stretch. A defensive performance against the Patriots propelled them to 8-6 on the year, and while that was not Wentz’s best game of the year, the Colts secured a much-needed win.

The following week, Wentz guided the Colts to a road win against the Cardinals, throwing for a pair of touchdowns in the victory. He started slowly, but played well in the second half to help Indianapolis pull out the win. The Colts were 9-6, and the playoffs seemed assured.

When was Wentz at his best? Often it came when the Colts tied together two concepts: Play-action and throwing deep.

This season, according to charting data from PFF, Wentz averaged 8.5 yards per attempt when throwing off of play-action, which was an increase of 2.4 yards per attempt over when he threw off of traditional dropbacks. The only quarterbacks who saw a bigger increase when throwing off play-action? Baker Mayfield, Taylor Heinicke and Jalen Hurts.

On throws of 20 yards or more downfield, Wentz posted an adjusted completion percentage of 47.5%, which was tenth-best in the league. He also threw seven touchdowns, against just three interceptions, when pushing the ball downfield.

This was another aspect of his game, dating back to his days with Reich in Philadelphia, that the coach appreciated:

This season of course, part of the success on play-action was also due to the presence of Taylor in the backfield. As the Colts put together their impressive mid-season run, Wentz’s success on play-action played a role:

Studying Wentz on film, you do notice that some of his best throws of the season came when he was pushing the football downfield, working off run action. Take this touchdown to Ashton Dulin:

As the general manager noted, this is an impressive throw. While there might be more than one or two quarterbacks that can make this kind of play, it is still a pretty small number, and Wentz is part of the crew that can.

So, there is the good.

What about the bad?

Where it went wrong

(AP Photo/AJ Mast)

Having looked at what worked, we need to examine the other side of the coin.

The problems?

Well, there are a few.

First, we have seen the limitations of offenses that have to rely heavy on play-action to be successful. When the quarterback is forced to work outside of that structure, to rely more on traditional dropbacks, there can be problems. On throws without play-action this season, Wentz posted an adjusted completion percentage of 72.0. That ranked him 25th in the league among qualified passers, ahead of just Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts, Trevor Lawrence, Russell Wilson (!) and Taylor Heinicke.

Hurts, Mayfield and Lawrence are quarterbacks on their rookie deals, and Heinicke is a veteran who began the year as a backup. The Wilson question? We will put that to the side for the time being.

Wentz, on the other hand, played for a base salary of $22 million this season with another $6.3 million in roster bonuses coming his way.

Again, as we have seen with offenses that build the entire plane — or at least the bulk of it out of play-action — there are limitation. Ceilings to what the offense can do, and perhaps developmental ceilings put in place by the schemes themselves.

Now, that can be overcome, and teams running these systems can be successful. But there are two more issues with Wentz that remain problematic. QB “non-negotiables” that linger with him as he looks ahead to his seventh NFL season.

Decision-making, and ball placement.

Wentz, in some ways, is a human roller coaster of a quarterback. Because the same player that can make throws like those posted above, also makes decisions like this one:

Yes, it was raining. The play certainly needs that bit of context. Some additional context? This was a 2nd and goal play from the four-yard line to open the second quarter, with the Colts trailing 12-7. This was not a final, desperation shovel to the end zone on the final play of the game. Wentz, even to this point in his career, often simply refuses to give up on a play. An admirable quality at times, but one that can get you burned at others.

Perhaps the best way to some up Wentz’s decision-making at times came from Michael Kist, who covered the Eagles for years before becoming an executive with Vox/SB Nation:

Sometimes, to use Ballard’s term, avoiding the big mistake is an issue of hitting the layups. But that leads us to the second issue, that of ball placement.

At the outset, it is important to make this point about ball placement: Completion percentage does not tell the whole story. This season, Wentz completed 64.8% of his throws. Standing alone, that number is somewhat troubling, given that it placed him 26th in the league among 31 qualified passers.

But then there is this, his completion percentage over expectation. On his passing attempts this year, Wentz had an expected completion percentage of 66.8%. Making his CPOE a negative, -2.0.

Only five passers had a worse CPOE: Ben Roethlisberger, Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Lawrence and Zach Wilson.

The reason, or a potential reason? Ballard also touched on that today:

Wentz has never been the most mechanically-sound quarterback. Dating back to his days at North Dakota State, his issues were first of the upper body/arm slot variety. His elbow placement was off and would dip, and the release point would be inconsistent as a result.

During his final season with the Eagles, a different problem emerged. Problems with his throwing base being too wide, and locking up his front leg. Take this interception from last season, paying close attention to his front leg:

On this crossing route to Michael Pittman Jr., you see Wentz lock up that front leg a bit, again causing that break in the throwing chain. The pass is catchable, but slightly off-target, enough for J.C. Jackson to break up the play.

Another issue Wentz had a season ago was not getting his feet set properly, not “setting the hallway” towards his target. Take this incompletion against the Rams from 2020:

On this still, you can see how the front foot is more “closed:”

(This is where I again say that you can mimic this, by trying to throw a pass to a target but closing your front foot off, and you will feel that “break” in your front hip, as the body struggles to rotate through and finish the throwing motion. You’ll feel a pulling sensation on the outside of that front hip. Anytime I find myself writing about mechanics I spend more time duplicating the motion in my office and trying to describe the feeling than anything else).

Again, these mechanical issues are fixable, as Quincy Avery pointed out. The problem, however, is what Ballard referred to. Muscle memory. You can spend hours upon hours fixing the mechanics in the off-season, but on the opening drive of the season — or the final game of the year — muscle memory can kick in. It takes a lot of time, patience, and hard work.

Even then they might not stick, or last the entire season.

Where do the Colts go from here?

This is perhaps the ultimate question: Where do the Colts go from here?

After, or even during, Ballard’s press conference there was quick reaction on Twitter, with many believing the door was open to the team moving on from the quarterback.

Here are Ballard’s comments in full, and you can see for yourself:

At this point with Wentz, it seems relatively clear what the issues are, at least on-the-field. The same issues that have been in place for a while now.

The question facing the Colts is this: With this version of Wentz, is he good enough for the team to win? If so, they can roll into next season. If they do not feel he is, then they need to make a chance. What might make that difficult, of course, is who is next? Is there a rookie in this class — one that would be available when the Colts are first on the clock in the second round — that would be an upgrade? Is another trade a viable option? Could they swing for the fences in free agency and lure Aaron Rodgers to Indianapolis? Is there a viable alternative already on the roster, in either Sam Ehlinger or James Morgan, recently signed to the practice squad?

The Colts are not going to rush into a decision, but few of the options sitting here at the moment are appealing. They can spin things back with Wentz and hope for improvement. They can try and find an option in the draft to serve as competition for Wentz, and with the 47th pick overall they might see a quarterback option slide to them. But that is a small needle to thread.

Furthermore, there are financial considerations. Wentz is under contract through 2024. If the team cuts or trades him, they will eat $15 million in dead money, but if such a move is done prior to March 18th, they will at least avoid another $13.3 million in roster bonuses.

Their easier out is after the 2022 season, where cutting or trading him would come without any dead money costs against the cap.

But that circles us back to the issue of replacements.

Ultimately, the plan might be to roll forward with Wentz in 2021 hoping for improvement, while adding another quarterback from the middle rounds of this cycle and hoping that lottery ticket hits.

Back when the trade was made, I closed my article on how Reich could fix Wentz with this final paragraph:

There was, however, one more sentence to that piece.

“Otherwise, we might be right back here by next winter.”

Winter is not coming. Winter is here.

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