147k Americans may die from coronavirus by August, forecast shows

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Senior Faculty & Former CDC Executive Dr. Ali Mokdad joins Yahoo Finance's Seana Smith to discuss the latest forecast from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, along with California State University's decision to keep campuses closed through the fall semester.

Video Transcript

SEANA SMITH: Model often cited by the White House has raised its projected death toll, yet, again. This comes as the number of confirmed cases here in the US-- number of confirmed coronavirus cases inches closer to 1.4 million. So here with more on this, we have Dr. Ali Mokdad at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington and also a former CDC executive.

And Dr. Mokdad, it's great to have you back on the show. Let's start with that model that I mentioned-- the one that's closely watched by the White House. What is the model telling you at this point?

ALI MOKDAD: There is an increase in mobility. And because of premature relaxation of social distancing, we're seeing an increase in cases in certain places. And, hence, we are projecting more mortality by August 1.

SEANA SMITH: And when you drill down into that, I mean, this echoes what we heard Dr. Fauci talking about yesterday. And he was basically saying that the outbreak isn't completely under control and that the consequences of reopening too quickly could be very serious. I guess what do you think of his comments? And then also just in terms of states making the decision to reopen-- some states making the decision to reopen at this point-- is it simply too early?

ALI MOKDAD: For some states, it's definitely too early. What states need to do in terms of considering when they can open up is to balance the infection rate that they have in their population and their ability to trace and do the isolation for these cases. So how much testing they have-- how much public support they have in order to do that testing and able to be able to control the epidemic, as there are some outbreaks here and there. So they have to be ready to control that.

And many states, unfortunately, are moving faster than their capacity to do so. And if you look at different states right now, some of them are better off to open, whereas, others should not consider opening prematurely.

SEANA SMITH: Dr. Mokdad, what are some of the states that you think are better positioned or could potentially open now without having the same amount of risk as some of the other states that are at higher risk?

ALI MOKDAD: So if you look at the average transmission in the past seven days and you look at the states, right now we have nine states where we have infection increases-- increasing. And we have 19 states where they are steady. And we have about 21 states that are coming down. So these 21 states are at better positioned right now to open.

States that are really of concern that are opening prematurely will be North Carolina, the Dakotas, Arkansas and Maryland. We have seen problems in these states. And we are seeing an increase in infections. So they should relax a little bit and consider waiting a little bit more in order to open.

SEANA SMITH: And Dr Mokdad, the guidelines that have been laid out on the national and also the state level, do you think that is enough just in terms of what they're taking into consideration? And if it's not, how best do we do this effectively and safely? I know you mentioned testing and contact tracing before. But what else can we do in order to insure or try and prevent a second wave?

ALI MOKDAD: So we have to remember, CDC put out guidelines saying if you have 14 consecutive days of declining in your infections, you should consider opening up as long as you have in place the testing and the tracing that you could do for your own outbreaks that come up. So many states, unfortunately, don't have 14 days of continuous decline. And they have opened prematurely.

So this should be a guideline for states. The debate shouldn't be about should we open or not? The debate should be when should we open and do it correctly without setting ourself for a setback? And we have to close down, again, which would be more hurting our economy than waiting a little bit and opening up.

SEANA SMITH: And what do you think about the death toll numbers? I know you're saying that you raised your projection going on into August. By just drilling down into what we have already seen, there's been talk out there that the death-- that their actual death toll is much higher than what's being reported. And just curious from the data that you're looking at, what are your thoughts on that?

ALI MOKDAD: So for sure there is underreporting of deaths, especially early on, because we didn't know COVID-19 arrived to the United States. And early on, that's what maybe counted as pneumonia or fluid-related symptoms. So what we really need to do is look back on and look in January, February, March, April during this phase, how much excess mortality we have and how much of these mortalities we should attribute to COVID-19. Definitely we'll have more deaths than what we have been counting right now, because we are not taking into account, people are dying from heart diseases at home because of COVID-19 complication and so on.

SEANA SMITH: It's interesting. There was a decision announced today. And that was that Cal State officials saying that their campuses will teach online. What-- from your perspective, how important is it to major school systems like that go virtual? And I guess how likely do you think it is that the majority of the colleges and the universities across the nation will, in fact, go virtual in the fall?

ALI MOKDAD: So what we are talking about is going virtually, especially for big classes right now, even just today when making that decision. We're awaiting a little bit more to see if the virus is still circulating at the summer and early in the fall. And then if we are expecting-- and we should be prepared for a second wave. We should not open our schools, and we should be very careful.

Large classrooms, more mobility within our universities will invite the virus to stipulate more cases, unfortunately, more deaths. We have to be very careful. The decision has to be made later on in the summer, as we will see what's happening during that phase in terms of stipulation of the virus.

SEANA SMITH: Dr. Mokdad, earlier in the interview, you mentioned the importance of testing. And that's something we've talked about time and time again here on Yahoo Finance. Do you think we're making enough progress on this front? And how are the number of test that we currently have access to incorporated into your forecasting?

ALI MOKDAD: So we include testing in our forecasting. And we account for it, because the more testing you have, the more likely you are to catch a case earlier and prevent the spread of the virus. So that's very important. In the United States, we have increased our capacity for testing. But it is not the same in all the states. So many states, for example, Texas, doesn't have the capacity that it needs given the number of cases that they have.

Other states, including my state, are better off because their testing capacity and the caseload that they are facing are appropriate. And they are able to maintain that ability to test and detect early cases. Remember, early on, we were testing only people who were sick and showing up at our health facilities. Right now because we have more testing, we are able to test those who are asymptomatic and prevent the spread of the virus.

So it depends by state. States need to look at how many cases they have right now. How much we are estimating on our web page the cases that they have and their testing capacity and figure out, are they comfortable to open up at that stage or not?

SEANA SMITH: And real quick. In the past, White House has said that they're aiming to test about 2% in each state's population. Is that enough?

ALI MOKDAD: Depends again about the circulation of the virus. It's not a percentage of your population. It's more likely the related to the number of cases you had. If you have more outbreaks, you have to do more tracing. You have to do more testing. So it's not the function of the population. It's a function of the circulation of the virus. Unfortunately, the virus is in charge.

SEANA SMITH: All right, Dr. Ali Mokdad, we really appreciate you having you back on the show. We hope you join us again soon and thanks so much for taking the time.