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Boris Johnson Odds: Who Are the Front-Runners to Replace PM?

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Boris Johnson is set to stay on as caretaker prime minister following his resignation on Thursday, and betting firms are readying themselves for the race to succeed him.

Conservatives organizing the leadership contest are keen to whittle down candidates to a final two before Parliament goes on its summer recess on July 21. Gambling websites offer clues about what happens next, as potential successors prepare to throw their hats in the ring.

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The process, which could take six weeks or more depending on how many candidates receive the backing of parliamentary colleagues, involves a series of ballots, resulting in two contenders to be put to the wider party. There would then be an August campaign, with candidates using television debates and hustings around the country to win the votes of the membership, thought to be about 180,000 strong. If, however, only one candidate is nominated by MPs, then they become uncontested leader but may be subject to a vote of party members to ratify the result.

Front-runners

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, seen to have performed competently in Britain’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as last year’s Afghanistan evacuation, is the favorite to succeed Johnson according to Sky Bet, which will pay out 5/2 on him to be the next Tory leader. The former Army captain recently rose to the top of the influential ConservativeHome league table of cabinet ministers, a widely-watched barometer of popularity among party insiders.

Other sites have Wallace’s odds lower - he’s 3/1 at Betfair and Ladbrokes, according to Oddschecker.

Rishi Sunak is the platform’s second most likely candidate following his resignation on Tuesday as chancellor of the exchequer. Sunak was once the clear favorite to succeed the prime minister, but his popularity faded earlier this year amid controversies over his wife’s non-dom tax status, his possession while chancellor of a US green card, and the perception of him being slow to react to Britain’s cost-of-living crisis.

Tom Tugendhat, chair of Parliament’s foreign affairs select committee, is third-favorite to succeed Johnson at odds of 6/1 on Sky. The former soldier, who fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, has been a regular critic of the prime minister and is outspoken on foreign policy matters, particularly the need to take a tough stance on China.

Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt, viewed in the party as having strong pro-Brexit credentials, charisma and good leadership qualities, is fourth-favorite to succeed Johnson at odds of 13/2 on Sky. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, a darling of the party grassroots who has drawn comparisons to Margaret Thatcher, and former Health Secretary Sajid Javid, an experienced cabinet hand, make up the rest of Sky Bet’s top six contenders.

Outsiders for the job include former Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt and new Chancellor of the Exchequer Nadhim Zahawi, both given odds of 14/1. Tory politician Steve Baker and former Levelling-Up Secretary Michael Gove are also in the mix.

Despite mounting speculation of a general election this year, bookies suggest a national vote is more likely to happen in 2023 or later.

Here Are The Conservatives Who May Vie to Replace Boris Johnson

Odds from betting on politics should be taken with a pinch of salt. In markets terms, they reflect the views of retail investors, rather than professionals who spend their lives analyzing these things. Still, they give strong clues about which politicians could throw their hats into the ring when the Tory leadership contest starts.

(Updates odds and political developments throughout)

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