Can Bo Nix realistically win the Heisman Trophy in 2023?

There’s a reason that Bo Nix came back to the Oregon Ducks for the 2023 season.

Sure, you could say that his NFL Draft stock was not as high as he wanted it to be, or that he had more to learn at the college level before testing his mettle against the best of the best on Sundays. The Oregon QB will tell you it’s because he wants to continue having fun, and he learned in 2022 how fun college football can be.

I think a big part of it is that Nix wants to prove to himself, and everyone else in the nation, that he can be the same QB that he was last year for the Ducks, if not even better.

For the 11 games of the season a year ago, Nix was among the best quarterbacks in the nation. He led the Ducks to a 9-1 record and was not far away from making it 10-1 before an injury in the fourth quarter against the Washington Huskies derailed things.

After that fateful play on November 12, Nix wasn’t quite the same. He was still able to produce for the Ducks and figure out ways in which he could contribute to their success, but it wasn’t hard to see his abilities drop off a bit while gritting through a lower-leg injury that easily could have ended his season.

So going into the 2023 season, can he get back to those same heights from last year, pre-injury?

The betting market seems to think so. At the moment, Nix has some of the best odds to win the 2023 Heisman Trophy Award, alongside USC quarterback Caleb Williams and Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. Before the injury, Nix was among the favorites to win the award, and likely was on a trajectory to be invited to the Heisman ceremony in New York City in December.

How likely is it that he can be in the mix once again this year? That’s a question that can be broken down into several parts. First off, what are the general expectations of a Heisman-worthy QB when it comes to stats, and how close was Nix to getting there before his injury? What would his stats need to look like in 2023 to have him in the running once again this year?

Let’s break it all down.

Bo Nix 2022 Season Pre-Injury

If you take away the Week 1 game against the eventual national champion Georgia Bulldogs, Nix’s stats were pretty great in 2022. Here are his stat lines leading up to and including the Washington game in Week 10 when he got injured.

Bo Nix 2022 Season Post-Injury

Coincidentally, here are his stats after the injury took place:

Obviously, it’s easy to see how much the rushing success dropped off once Nix got injured, but his passing success didn’t really suffer, other than his completion percentage taking a bit of a hit.

Imagining a Fully Healthy 2022 for Bo Nix

How would things have been different last season — statistically speaking — had Nix been fully healthy for the final couple of games? Passing-wise, I don’t think we see many differences, other than an additional touchdown or two. On the ground, though, it’s easy to see where his game would have been better with two good wheels.

Here were Nix’s Total stats last year:

And here’s how we project his totals would have looked with a fully-healthy final three games:

Average Stats for Past QB Heisman Trophy Winners

To get a sense of what is required for Heisman Trophy winners at the QB position, I wanted to go back and see what stats they put up in their campaign seasons over the past handful of years. In the last 10 years, eight QBs have won the award. Here’s what I found:

As you can see, the past eight Heisman-winning QBs either had an elite year throwing the ball or an elite year running the ball. Joe Burrow’s 2019 year through the air is mind-boggling, while Lamar Jackson was fine in the passing game, but virtually a running back at the QB position.

Here’s what the average Heisman-winning QB season looks like, statistically speaking:

Early 2023 Heisman Trophy Betting Odds

The Heisman Trophy betting odds were updated following the spring football season across the college football nation. Here are where the odds currently stand for the nation’s top QBs to win the prestigious award:

• USC Caleb Williams (+500)

• Washington Michael Penix Jr. (+1200)

• Oregon Bo Nix (+1200)

• Florida State Jordan Travis (+1200)

• North Carolina Drake Maye (+1500)

• Notre Dame Sam Hartman (+1500)

• LSU Jayden Daniels (+2000)

• Texas Quinn Ewers (+2000)

• Ohio State Kyle McCord (+2000)

• Penn State Drew Allar (+2500)

What a 2023 Heisman-Worthy Season Looks Like for Bo Nix

As I mentioned earlier, it is almost a prerequisite for a Heisman-winning QB to have an elite year either throwing the ball or running the ball. Based on the players who are in contention, you can often get a good feel for which of the two will be more important. While all 10 quarterbacks mentioned above are able to do both at a high level, does the majority lean one way, and would it be beneficial for a contrarian to pop up and steal the show by doing the thing well that others do not?

Both routes are entirely plausible. Lamar Jackson didn’t have elite passing numbers, but his rushing stats stood apart from the rest of the group. The opposite can be said about Joe Burrow, whose passing numbers were impossible to ignore. Then you have someone like Marcus Mariota, who was slightly above average passing, and slightly above average running, compared to the other past winners.

Looking at the top-10 players according to betting odds, I have a feeling it will be more of a pass-heavy season. Guys like Williams, Nix, Travis, Maye, and Daniels can run adequately, but for the most part, these guys are on the watch list because of their arm talent.

With all of that being said, I believe that in order for Nix to win the Heisman this year, he will have to maintain his consistent passing stats — more passing TD will surely be needed — while proving that he can be a major threat on the ground once again.

In other words, he will need to be the same player as he was in 2022 pre-injury, with a tiny bump of improvement.

Here’s what I predict his stat line would need to be in 2023, based on all of the information gathered above:

So...Can Bo Nix Win the 2023 Heisman?

We’ve danced around it enough; it’s time to do what we came here to do and answer the question: Can Bo Nix realistically win the Heisman Trophy in 2023?

The answer in my mind is a definitive yes. It won’t be easy, and the Oregon QB is going to need to have another career year, but based on what we’ve seen and heard during the offseason, I believe it’s possible.

Let’s look at his complete 2022 stats and compare them to the stats I project he will need in 2023 in order to win the award:

Obviously, the main things that stand out are the passing numbers. While Nix has a great rushing ability, I don’t think he is poised to have a Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray-esque season where he rushes for over 1,000 yards and 20-plus TD. In order to contend for the award, he’s going to need to break the 4,000-yard mark through the air, while bumping up his passing TD numbers a decent amount. If he can do that while maintaining the level of rushing success that he had in 2022, I think all of this is entirely possible.

Of course, there is also an elephant in the room that needs to be mentioned…

The Ducks need to win, and they need to contend for the College Football Playoff in order for Nix to have a chance. If you look back at the past Heisman winners, only twice have the eventual winners not gotten their team to the CFP — Caleb Williams and USC fell short in 2022, while Lamar Jackson and Lousiville missed out in 2016 as well.

Unless Nix goes on to put up absolutely other-worldly stats in 2023, the Ducks will need to make it to the Pac-12 Championship game and contend for a spot in the playoff if Oregon has any chance of bringing a second Heisman home to Eugene.

In my mind, all of that is entirely possible.

Story originally appeared on Ducks Wire