Parents hit the stores for back-to-school shopping amid supply, virus, and inflation worries

When Jen Risio heard on the news that back-to-school items were expected to be in short supply, she raced over to her local Marshall’s in Fairhaven, Mass. to buy a new backpack for her 10-year old daughter, Willow.

“I’m usually a last minute shopper and I know that what we have in our house now could supply an entire classroom — from crayons to markers to binders,” Risio said. “But backpacks are important. This was the one Willow wanted, and the message was alarming! It was like, ‘Better get out and buy now before everything sells out!’”

This sense of urgency is rippling across the country, said Rod Sides, vice chairman and leader of the retail, wholesale and distribution practice at Deloitte. “Historically, back-to-school shopping season peaks in the first two weeks in August. This year, it accelerated by two weeks given the worries about supply chain issues."

'Digital acceleration

Electronics always tops the back-to-school list — even more so this year, Sides said.

“The digital acceleration that occurred in the past year created a new baseline for tech integration in the education system," Sides said, "altering the types of products needed for both virtual and in-person learners.”

Plus, “some families have been sharing devices and need upgrades,” said Katherine Cullen, a spokesperson for the National Retail Federation.

'Traditional supplies'

Another key driver of spending is related to the expectation that kids will be returning to in-person classes, said Matt Kramer, national sector leader of consumer and retail at KPMG. “This requires traditional supplies that parents didn’t have to worry about last year.”

“My kids have all had the same backpacks and lunch boxes for the past two years,” said Lauren Danza, mother of three children ages two and half, 6, and 9. “And they all need new clothes.”

Danza plans to splurge this year, particularly since her kids will be in new schools once the family’s move from Los Angeles to Nassau County is complete.

“It’s a new chapter for us so I want them have everything they need to start the year fresh," Danza said. I want them to feel settled.”

Return to 'normal'

Following a tumultuous, emotionally-driven year, many families echo that sentiment, Cullen said. “There’s a lot of momentum around starting the school season off with a return to ‘normal.’”

This sense of optimism, combined with several years’ worth of pent-up demand, is contributing to the expectation that back-to-school sales will hit a record-breaking $37.1 billion, according to the National Retail Federation. That’s up from $33.9 billion last year and the highest level in the survey history.

Another contributor to record-level spending, Sides said, is the expanded Child Tax Credit which began hitting bank accounts in mid-July.

Then there's inflation.

“Everything is costing more from socks and shirts to sneakers, which are ridiculously expensive right now,” said Janice Antonio, of Seekonk, Mass., mother of two children ages 8 and 9. “Both sons are picky about clothes, and they want the same things the other kids have — the jogger pants, the Pumas, the Vans."

Furthermore, she added: “Schools are not getting the basic supplies they need so the spending on things like crayons, pencil cases, folders, headphones is falling back on the parents much more so than it has in the past.”

Personal Finance Journalist Vera Gibbons is a former staff writer for SmartMoney magazine and a former correspondent for Kiplinger's Personal Finance. Vera, who spent over a decade as an on air Financial Analyst for MSNBC, currently serves as co-host of the weekly nonpolitical news podcast she founded, NoPo. She lives in Palm Beach, Florida.