Why Chase Edmonds will be the first free agent signing for Mike McDaniel

New Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel was one of the stars of the most recent hiring cycle. From the analysis of his press conferences while in San Francisco, through the content produced by the Dolphins social media team as the hiring was unveiled, through his performance at the Combine in Indianapolis, as he hit the trifecta of Rich Eisen cliches.

But now it is time to truly get to work.

With the NFL’s “legal tampering period” underway, one of the first expected signings reported was the move by McDaniel to bring running back Chase Edmonds to the AFC East:

This move should not come as a surprise. While many of the questions McDaniel fielded during his podium session in Indianapolis dealt with Deebo Samuel — and trying to find the next version of him in free agency and/or the draft — the move to acquire Edmonds comes down to two words.

Efficiency and scheme.

Fitting into the Dolphins offense

(ALLEN EYESTONE / THE PALM BEACH POST)

With the caveat that things could change overnight, McDaniel has been clear that his vision for the Dolphins next season begins with getting the best out of quarterback Tua Tagovalioa. His phone call with the Dolphins quarterback was one piece of the social media content generated by Miami during the rollout of his hiring, and McDaniel during that discussion pointed to getting the “greatness” out of the young quarterback:

Last season, the Dolphins relied heavily on the RPO game, to try and get that best out of Tagovailoa. It makes sense, given the system that he ran in college and how the Dolphins were able to generate explosive plays on such designs.

That leads us to Edmonds.

Edmonds brings the experience in such a system to Miami, as well as an ideal skill-set for running the football on zone concepts. Some of his most explosive plays last season as a ball-carrier came on RPO designs, with Edmonds reading out zone blocking up front.

On this play against the Indianapolis Colts, the Cardinals run a box-count RPO. Edmonds will attack inside with as the offensive line uses zone blocking, but quarterback Kyler Murray has the option to throw the backside speed out to wide receiver A.J. Green, isolated on the right side of the formation:

Once more you see the vision and the burst, as Edmonds initially starts up the middle through the A-Gap, but cuts back to the left and explodes upfield, picking up 23 yards for the Cardinals offense.

Here is one more example of this design at work, against the Cleveland Browns:

Given his experience, vision, footwork and burst, Edmonds is a near-ideal fit for the offense we anticipate McDaniel implementing this season with Tagovailoa.

The efficiency argument

(Matt Kartozian, USA TODAY Sports)

There is another component to the Edmonds news that makes sense from Miami’s perspective.

Efficiency.

Now, when you start talking about efficiency and the running game, there are sure to be some raised eyebrows. After all, as various different metrics inform us on a near-daily basis — and as we have discussed in pieces such as this one — passing is more efficient in the modern NFL.

For example, take a look at this chart from RBSDM.com, the highly-informative website put together by Ben Baldwin of The Athletic:

This chart measures Expected Points Added per Play on both running plays, and passing plays. The dashed red lines indicate league averages for both metric. The average passing EPA per Play last season was a positive number.

The average rushing EPA per Play last season? A negative number.

So on the whole, passing is more productive and efficient, when viewed through the EPA lens.

However, turning to Edmonds for a moment. He is one of those rare running backs who was actually efficient last season, when analyzed through the EPA prism. According to charting data from Sports Info Solutions, Edmonds had an EPA per rushing attempt of 0.08. That placed him fifth overall among ball-carriers with 100 or more rushing attempts last season. It also placed him second among running backs, as the top three players in that statistic were quarterbacks Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson.

(There is a post about the efficiency of the quarterback running game in the modern NFL in my future, I just know it).

But Edmonds was one of the league’s most efficient ball carriers in terms of EPA per play last year. That is something that McDaniels values. At the Combine he discussed the value of the running back position in the modern NFL, and he talked about the scheme fit in a zone system, as well as the efficiency needed given that you are talking about a large chunk of the offensive snaps over an entire season:

In Edmonds, McDaniel now has that zone-blocking fit, as well as one of the league’s more efficient backs from a season ago. After all, according to Sports Info Solutions charting data, Edmonds’ EPA per rushing attempt jumped to 0.14 on zone designs, ranking him ninth in the NFL last season, and seventh among running backs.

After the flourish of his hiring cycle, it was time for McDaniel to finally make a move. That first move out of the gate makes sense from both a scheme and efficiency standpoint, and highlights part of his vision for the Dolphins’ offense in 2022.

1

1